Synonymous with populism and fiscal irresponsibility in Argentina, Kirchnerism is a subdivision of Peronism that emerged in the southern province of Santa Cruz, where Néstor Kirchner was governor from 1991 to 2003 before reaching the Casa Rosada.
After his first and only presidential term (2003-2007), he was succeeded by his wife, Cristina (2007-2015), who in 2019 would return as Vice President to Alberto Fernández.
Many believe that Cristina’s conviction to six years in prison and life disqualification from holding public office for corruption this Tuesday (6) could deal a fatal blow to Kirchnerism, but it is likely that it is not as simple as that.
To begin with, the vice-president, who already had three lawsuits filed against her last year (they are being re-examined by higher courts) and is waiting for another to be judged, will not comply with this Tuesday’s sentence immediately.
Due to the privileged jurisdiction, she cannot be detained now and, in addition, she will be able to appeal to the Federal Chamber of Penal Cassation and later to the Supreme Court.
Another point is that Cristina will try to gain political dividends with the case, which she had been seeking since before her conviction. Alleging judicial persecution, Peronism gains arguments with its base to try to interfere in the Judiciary so that it defends its interests.
Efforts that were already taking place, such as maneuvers to place more allies in the Council of the Magistracy (a body with the power to appoint and remove judges) and a project to increase the number of seats on the Supreme Court, should gain emphasis.
The aim is to add to the commotion over Tuesday’s verdict to that awakened by the assassination attempt that the vice president suffered in Buenos Aires at the beginning of September.
“In reality, Kirchnerism and Peronism manage to use these things that come up against them to their advantage. This has happened many times in Argentine history. I don’t doubt that Cristina even supported a conviction and then tried to reverse it and come back as a martyr, even making an association with what happened to Lula in Brazil”, pointed out Márcio Coimbra, postgraduate coordinator in institutional relations and governmental institutions of Faculdade Presbiteriana Mackenzie Brasília (FBMB).
“The populist leader has to show himself as someone against the system. The moment you have a condemnation of the ‘system’, it legitimizes your populism. In Christina’s case, [foi legitimado] everything she has been saying, that she is persecuted, that they want to take her out of politics”, he added.
Hostage Peronism and Fragmented Opposition
While most Argentines reject the Fernández government, mainly due to uncontrolled inflation and the economic slowdown, Kirchner has Peronism in his hands.
Taking advantage of its prestige with trade unions and social movements, it generates wear and tear for the current president by imposing changes of ministers and undermining measures that oppose populist spending, such as the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) defined at the beginning of this year and any slightest attempt at fiscal responsibility.
His pressure to grant diplomatic asylum to a former minister of former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa (2007-2017) convicted of corruption soured Fernández’s relations with Ecuador’s current president, Guillermo Lasso.
Although she claimed after the verdict that she does not intend to run for office in 2023, Cristina will at least try to use her influence to reverse her conviction and free her children from trouble with the Justice – national deputy Máximo Kirchner, son of her and Néstor, is the political heir of the clan.
“When we penetrate the Argentine social fabric and see unions, neighborhood associations and social movements, Kirchnerism and Peronism have a lot of strength. It means that, in an election, they already leave a minimum level, and, in addition, this penetration in the social fabric helps them to multiply votes much more easily than their opponents”, explained Coimbra.
For the specialist, the articulation difficulties of the oppositionists help in this perpetuation.
“They [peronismo] had opponents of all sorts, for example, the Radical Civic Union, today completely small, shared space with the party of [ex-presidente Mauricio] Macri has Macri’s own people. There is not a very clear alternative to Peronism in a duel, the other side is always very fragmented, many parties have disappeared or decreased in size, ”he added.
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