Euro 2024, which will take place in Germany this June, promises to be a spectacle for football fans around the world. And technology is not left out of this passion for the beautiful sport.
According to the criteria of
Based on an analysis of 100,000 simulations with artificial intelligence (AI) conducted by the Zeileis research group, France is the main candidate to lift the trophy, with a probability of 19.2 percent.
This prediction method is based on four advanced statistical models that take various elements into account.
Among them are the historical performance of each team in the last eight years, the expectations and odds collected from 28 bookmakersboth the individual and collective ratings of the players, and additional factors such as the GDP of each nation.
To make this prediction, the models have been trained with the results of matches from Euro 2021 to date. In particular, the goals scored by each team in this period have been evaluated, using the Poisson method to simulate all group stage matches 100,000 times, allowing the probability of victory for each team to be calculated.
According to the simulations, England is second in the odds of winning, with a 16.7 percent, followed by Germany with 13.7 percent and Spain with a 12 percent chance of victory, occupying fourth position.
The study also shows the expected performance of the teams throughout the tournament, using an interactive graph that illustrates how the probabilities of each team change in each phase of the competition.
According to these simulations, England will start with more options, but it will be France who takes the lead towards the end of the tournament.
However, although artificial intelligence offers a valuable prediction tool, it cannot guarantee definitive results. History has shown that the surprises and magic of football can challenge even the most accurate models, keeping the excitement and suspense of every match alive.
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*This content was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence, based on information from El Comercio, and was reviewed by a journalist and an editor.
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