There are state elections in Bavaria on October 8th. Söder is running for re-election as CSU Prime Minister. Forecasts and projections provide initial indications of the result.
Munich – The state elections in Bavaria only become exciting at second glance. Because Markus Söder (CSU) will remain Prime Minister is as certain as the amen in church: according to current surveys, the CSU is at 36 to 38 percent. However, three parties are vying for second place. The first projections and first results will show on Sunday (October 8th) who will win the race.
Forecasts and projections: Who will make it to second place in Bavaria?
According to current polls for the Bavarian election, three parties in Bavaria are somewhat on par, each achieving between 13 and 16 percent. Firstly, there are the Free Voters with their boss Hubert Aiwanger, who made national headlines in recent weeks with the leaflet affair. Secondly, there are the Bavarian Greens with their top candidates Ludwig Hartmann and Katharina Schulze. And then there is the AfD, which is quite divided in Bavaria, with its top duo Katrin Ebner-Steiner and Martin Böhm.
According to surveys, the SPD (8 to 9 percent) and the FDP (around 4 percent) are lagging behind in Bavaria. The Liberals could therefore fail at the five percent hurdle in Bavaria and miss entry into the state parliament. But only the projections and results on election evening will show what the reality looks like.
When will there be projections and forecasts for the Bavaria election?
So when will there be the first forecasts, projections and results for the election outcome in Bavaria? As soon as the polling stations close at 6 p.m., the election workers get to work and start counting the ballot papers. The ballot papers that arrived by postal vote will then also be counted.
At the same time as the polling stations close, the first forecasts will be published at 6 p.m. These are not based on ballot papers that have already been counted, but on so-called “exit polls”: voters in selected districts are asked in front of the polling stations to fill out anonymous questionnaires about their voting decision. The first forecasts of the election outcome are based on these representative surveys and thus quickly provide an initial picture of the election outcome.
During the election evening on Sunday, October 8th, the projections will be added: These are the first results of the counting in the 91st voting circles. These are constantly updated and provide a more accurate result the more ballot papers are counted.
State election in Bavaria: When will there be a provisional result and final result?
A preliminary result of the state elections in Bavaria can be expected late in the evening or at night. It will then be known which parties made it over the five percent hurdle, which constituency candidates were directly elected and how many seats the parties are expected to have won in total in the Bavarian state parliament.
However, it will take some time until the exact numbers are known: Determining the final result of the state elections in Bavaria is time-consuming due to the quite complex electoral system. The final distribution of seats and the official final result will be published at the end of October. The newly elected Bavarian state parliament will meet for the first time in the Maximilianeum in Munich on October 30th at the latest.
Forecasts and projections for the Bavaria election: Which coalitions are possible?
Prime Minister Söder favors a coalition between his CSU and the Free Voters, as has been the case in Bavaria for the past five years. Since the Free Voters are expecting an increase in votes in the state elections in Bavaria, governing with the self-confident Hubert Aiwanger will not be any easier for Söder.
Söder categorically ruled out a possible coalition with the Greens before the state elections, as he did in the big interview with Munich Mercury as well as in the TV duel a few days before the election. The top Green duo Hartmann and Schulze, on the other hand, were open to a black-green coalition in Bavaria.
Forecasts and projections – what’s the difference?
Both forecasts and projections are used to predict the result of the state elections in Bavaria. But they differed in the type of methodology: forecasts are based on the “exit polls”, i.e. the surveys of voters directly at the polling stations on election day, but not on counted ballot papers.
The first projections, on the other hand, are estimates of the election results based on the votes that have already been counted in the electoral districts, which are gradually arriving. The more districts are counted, the more accurate the projection becomes over the course of election evening.
All information about the state elections in Bavaria – for example about the meaning of the first and second votes and the number and type of ballot papers – is available in Large election overview with all questions and answers to find. If you are still undecided about which party you should vote for, you can use the Wahl-O-Mat for Bavaria to test which parties most agree with your own positions. (smu)
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