An error in the interpretation of the information led the pharmaceutical company Q Pharma to establish a subsidiary in Argentina. “We analyzed the data from the Spanish mentality,” confesses its general director, César Quintanilla, “we assumed that Social Security was like the Spanish one and no, in Argentina there are about 50 or 60 social works.” The consumer market for its specialized products for urology and allergology thus fell by 80%. In the end, the business went well. Argentina contributes 1.6 million to the firm's general turnover, which in 2023 was about 11 million. But the example shows that error stalks the business world. “Faith in our own possibilities, hunches, misinterpretation of information and exaggerated confidence in previous successes” can lead to wrong decisions, says Han Bleichrodt, professor of Fundamentals of Economic Analysis at the University of Alicante (UA). . For this reason, he recommends that in companies there should not be “a single individual who makes decisions, as usually happens in family businesses,” but rather “give more control to the shareholders and that big decisions should always be made as a group.”
Bleichrodt carried out an experiment together with Mohammed Abdellaoui, from the HEC Paris business school, and Cédric Gutierrez, from Bocconi University in Milan, which confirms that 83% of business decisions are based on a “very optimistic assessment of one's own attitudes.” of businessmen, the result of their own beliefs and the overestimation of probabilities, beyond rational reflection.” The test, included in your research work Dismantling overconfident behaviors when betting on yourselfpublished in the specialized magazine Management Scienceconsisted of 400 interviews with volunteers who were asked to take an intelligence test.
With the results, they were invited to bet on two levels. First, about whether they had passed more than 60% of the test. In general, they tended to adjust quite a bit, even a little under. Then, about whether they were in the top 20. And there, they did overestimate their possibilities. 83% “believed themselves to be better than others.” “You always have to keep in mind that success is part of chance,” explains Bleichrodt, “but we have no control over uncertainty.” “A minimum control of the situation leads you to think that you control everything,” continues the professor, “and it is necessary to trust professionals, who will be more objective when making decisions.” No matter how small or family-owned the company is, a meeting of shareholders, a governing body or a board of directors will always be more reliable, he maintains.
At Q Pharma, “daily decision-making” falls to Quintanilla, “without consulting anyone.” For the “large and strategic” ones, this family firm has created “a board of directors made up of family members and an external financial advisor.” They analyze the sector, they conduct surveys among opinion leaders and consumers, “but there are always flaws that lead you to make decisions by instinct,” she reveals. “The opinion of the person in charge ultimately weighs more than the data” and, although it is subject to “feelings and perceptions”, experience also leads “to improve over time, reflect more and know better which databases to turn to.” In fact, one of the successes of this company created 20 years ago, which exports to more than 15 countries and has more than 80 employees, “was achieved by intuition.” It was his father who proposed “creating a society for the development of medicinal cannabis, based on a news item in the press.” The result, “a total success, we arrived at the right time.”
Javier Fur, CEO of Grupo Marjal, a family business specialized in real estate development, tourist resorts and accommodation for professionals in coliving, coincides with the academic analysis. “You have to have a little courage and, at the same time, limit the risks, which is not easy.” “Hunches or previous experiences are dangerous,” she admits, “business plans must be conservative and have a backup plan.” His group, which had a turnover of around 50 million last year, bases “daily decisions on a roadmap” and leaves “openings or growth to the consensus of the boards of directors of each of the units” of the firm. .
This control did not prevent “some errors that served to learn,” especially in terms of “geographical relocation.” With facilities spread between the Costa Brava and the Costa del Sol, “we thought it would be easy to set up a resort 400 kilometers from our headquarters,” but it was not like that. “We learned that we needed to run a longer onboarding process at each site so that the teams absorbed our culture.” “Every innovation entails a part of failure,” he argues, “because you are not going to always get it right.” “It is important to succeed more than to fail,” continues Fur, “but you don't have to be afraid if you want to move forward and innovate.” This risk serves “for anticipation, which is crucial in a world as competitive as today's, where you need unique and authentic value propositions.” To do this, he recommends “making sure you have a lot of information, making collegial decisions and not losing focus.”
The family is the basis of Hiperber, founded by brothers José and Ernesto Bernabeu from a salted fish store in Elche and which currently has 79 supermarkets, has a turnover of 200 million euros and employs 1,200 employees. “We have a family protocol signed more than 25 years ago,” comments its CEO, José Bernabeu, son and nephew of the founders, “which marks the operation of the company in any matter.” “On the management committee there is a financial director, a sales director and a commercial director” who execute the day-to-day actions, but purchases and negotiations “are voted on and elected by a comfortable majority or by consensus,” in quarterly meetings in those that even cousins participate, “future shareholders.” In the end, “everyone has to be convinced and the consequences of the decision will belong to everyone.” That feeling was instilled by the company's pioneers. “More than the characters of Succession“We are the Peaky Blinders, but because of the family union, not because of the business model,” he jokes.
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