The president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), is regularly portrayed as an authoritarian leader with dictatorial tendencies who is undermining the country's democratic institutions. A charming demagogue whose followers follow him mindlessly, captivated by his populist rhetoric.
As a Mexican academic and journalist, I have also been very critical of Amlo. He is a leader with populist impulses who commonly resorts to publicly criticizing his opponents, regardless of whether his criticisms are founded. Her harsh austerity measures caused unnecessary suffering during the pandemic and after Hurricane Otis (which hit the southwest of the country this year), and have degraded effective government systems to the point that military forces are now responsible for matters that normally require civilian leadership.
Despite this, the flawed Amlo enjoys a very high level of support among Mexicans, with around 66% approval, according to an average of polls. The measurements also suggest that Amlo's bid to succeed him in the National Palace, who is loyal to him, Claudia Sheinbaum, former mayor of Mexico City, would easily win the Mexican presidential elections on June 2, 2024. Amlo's party, Morena, youHe is also the favorite to win the majority of the governorships.
A common explanation they give to try to understand this is that Amlo has deceived Mexicans and voters blindly follow him because they like him beyond any rational argument. I don't think this is true. Treating Amlo's popularity as some kind of hollow scam is missing a historically significant moment in the young democracy of Mexico. There is much more at stake here.
In fact, Amlo's government has made important progress in internal policies that have favored the poor. He raised the minimum wage 85% above inflation and enacted labor reforms that strengthened a new generation of democratic, autonomous unions. As a result, wages, measured by per capita labor income, have reached a historical maximum in Mexico.
Focus on workers
Amlo has invested a significant amount of public funds in development initiatives, such as an interoceanic corridor and a tourist train, to expand employment and commerce opportunities in communities that have been hungry for investment for decades.
Internationally, the Mayan Train has been criticized for its environmental impact, but an October 2021 survey (the only public measurement focused on the region) found that 87% of locals approved of its construction because they wanted jobs and economic opportunities. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Mexican economy to grow a healthy 3.2% in 2023and according to the Central Bank of Mexico, the poorest states in the south are prospering more than the rest of the country.
Likewise, the number of families receiving social assistance has increased steadily during his term. Today, 14 million families receive cash transfers, and the average payment given to them has increased by 55%, adjusted for inflation. These transfers lift 3.5 million people out of poverty, 52% more than previous administrations.
Its form of government has been controversial with that of previous administrations that did not achieve results for the majority of the population and, on the contrary, would have enriched a golden elite. By the time Amlo took office, 88% of Mexico's citizens believed that a government primarily served the upper classes, and by some measures, the country was the fourth most unequal in the world.
Unlike Amlo's predecessors, he exercises power in ways that people perceive as more democratic and closer to the people. For example, he takes the bus, stops at random convenience stores to buy his own food, and speaks vernacular Spanish. At state banquets, he offers rural Mexican preparations such as tamales and holds daily press conferences in which he repeatedly emphasizes the ferocity of Mexico's economic elites. He has also visited small communities that were not previously of interest to federal officials, making that encounter one of the few that locals have had with the Mexican State.
As a result, Amlo has improved Mexicans' perception of their democracy. During his first years in office, the proportion of Mexicans who trust the federal government and their satisfaction with democracy nearly doubled, according to respected regional pollster Latinobarómetro. And although security remains a major concern for Mexicans, homicide rates have decreased slightly from 28 to 25 per 100,000 inhabitants from 2018 to 2022, and citizens report feeling safer than at any time in more than a decade.
A renewed faith has emerged in the Government and its institutions. The public perception that the federal government is not corrupt or rarely is corrupt has tripled. According to a May 2022 survey, two-thirds of Mexicans want the next administration to continue the work done.
The buts
In addition to what was stated at the beginning of the text, there are many other reasons to criticize Amlo. He has failed to carry out much-needed fiscal reforms, such as raising taxes on the richest, and has failed to build an industrial policy to promote the country's economic development. Mexico's healthcare system has deteriorated due to chronic underfunding, harming the lives of millions of families. These are all legitimate criticisms.
Furthermore, the question remains whether Amlo will use his charisma and authority to undermine electoral institutions in order to weaken the chances of opposition parties winning. In my opinion, this threat is greatly exaggerated. The question must be seen in context. There are no significant signs of democratic decomposition in Mexico.
Mexico's electoral institutions are solid. Since Amlo took office, there have been numerous elections, and both domestic and foreign observers have described them as generally fair and clean.
When the president tried to reform the National Electoral Institute (INE) and reduce its budget, he could not gather a supermajority to achieve it, even when 66% of Mexicans were in favor of that measure. The reform was uncritically covered as an attempt to destroy democracy, when in reality reforming the institute would affect both Amlo's party and others. Of course, there are many imaginary scenarios where Amlo designs and implements catastrophic electoral reforms. However, none of those scenarios have materialized.
His party has acknowledged electoral failures, including the loss of its supermajority in Congress, several key districts in Mexico City, the powerful state of Nuevo León and six other gubernatorial races. And there is no doubt that the next presidential elections will be free and fair and that Amlo will leave office as planned for this year.
The media remains free to be critical of Amlo's government. Of course, Amlo's supporters may be underrepresented in the media, and not the other way around. His opponents are free to organize and demonstrate, and they have done so with great success. There has not been a single politician arrested for expressing disagreement with his administration.
Mexico polarized
The question is why the minority view that Amlo has offered nothing to his voters has become the dominant idea to understand today's Mexico.
This, in my opinion, has a lot to do with the people the press pays attention to. International journalists often draw on the perspectives of Mexicans who speak English, have degrees from American universities, or work in think tanks financed by corporations to build their own perception of Mexican reality. This method generates a significant bias in a highly unequal society like Mexico, where the possibility of studying other languages and creating a broad international network is limited. limited to those at the top of the wealth distribution.
This is especially problematic given that people with higher incomes are the main financiers of opposition parties, which are Morena's rival political base. Supporters of opposition groups are aware of their influence outside Mexico and have invested efforts in arranging private contacts with international media, inviting them to political events and explaining Mexican domestic politics from their own point of view.
Amid the polarized opinions surrounding Amlo's leadership, one fact remains: his government serves as a symbol of democratic governance for the majority of Mexicans, as well as significant advances in the quality of life for millions of Mexican families. That may not be enough to meet some definitions of a true democracy; But for many Mexicans, it represents a much better government than they were used to having.
AUTHOR: VIRI RÍOS
AMERICAS QUARTERLY
MEXICO CITY
Mexican academic and author specialized in inequality and social policy with a doctorate in Government from Harvard University.
'The Economist' describes Mexico as a hybrid regime
#What39s #Amlo39s #popularity
