Libyans hope the election will cap a full year of international momentum towards ending a decade of chaos in the country.
The Libyan presidential elections are scheduled to take place on December 24, but there are many challenges facing these elections.
This year, the Libyan file witnessed a remarkable development towards ending the state of division and the cycle of violence that struck the country and threatened Europe’s maritime borders. It also witnessed many international agreements aimed at getting Libya out of its crisis.
Chronology
And the beginning of the prominent political events in Libya last February, when the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum elected Abdel Hamid Al-Dabaiba as the head of the interim Libyan government, and Muhammad Al-Manfi as the head of a presidential council composed of 3 men through a voting process, with a mandate to prepare for the elections.
In March, the House of Representatives held a unified session for the first time in years to ratify the Dabaiba government, and the two previous governments to hand over their powers peacefully.
As for April, the House of Representatives rejected the budget plan presented by Dabaiba in his capacity as the head of the interim government.
The Joint Military Committee (5 + 5), emanating from the Geneva ceasefire agreement, decided last July to reopen the main coastal road, but the mercenaries remained in their places.
Last September, Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh signed legislation to hold presidential elections on December 24, and the Supreme Council of State rejected the law claiming that it had been passed without undergoing appropriate procedures. In the same month, the House of Representatives withdrew confidence from the Dabaiba government, but allowed it to continue conducting business.
In October, the House of Representatives approved a second parliamentary election law.
In November, the Libyan Electoral Commission began registering the candidates’ papers, and announced that the first round of presidential elections would be held on December 24, with a run-off and parliamentary elections to follow within 52 days of that date.
With the elections approaching, international forces warned of the possibility of obstructing the elections, amid a state of stagnation in the political scene and calls for consensus for the success of the elections, and commitment to the road map that enjoys international support.
Election Challenges
With the end of the year approaching, Libya is scheduled to drop the curtain on the first leg of the road map, which is holding elections this month.
The specter of delay is looming as a result of several reasons, perhaps the most prominent of which is the attempts of the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been active through its arms recently with public incitement and the prohibition of elections, which led to the storming of the High Electoral Commission in the capital, Tripoli.
The matter extended to the Brotherhood’s armed robbery of a number of electoral centers under the control of militias, and the judiciary was threatened and violence was threatened in case of objecting to the election results.
In the same context, Salem Akhrais, a Libyan political researcher and crisis management specialist, says that the past period witnessed many Brotherhood attempts to obstruct the electoral process.
He stressed that the organization, in its quest, is repeating this armed coup that it carried out in 2014 in the so-called “Dawn of Libya” battle, when the Brotherhood and other militias mobilized to reject the organization’s failure in the parliamentary elections that year, after they were brought down by the Libyan people, who refused to elect most of their candidates.
The mercenaries are one of the most prominent obstacles to the Libyan elections, as the Joint Military Committee (5+5) seeks to hold multiple external meetings, including during the past few days, Russia and Turkey; In order to search the thorny file.
In this context, the African Union expressed, last month, its readiness to coordinate and cooperate in order to remove all fighters belonging to its countries from Libyan territory, and to ensure their reception in their countries.
Commenting on this, the Libyan strategic expert, Muhammad Al-Hilawi, confirmed that the plan for the exit of foreign fighters from the country will be agreed upon gradually, but in a “complete form” without exception.
Al-Hilawi praised what the committee had achieved so far with regard to opening the coastal road, and the understanding on the file of mercenaries’ withdrawal.
armed militia
The third thing that threatens the electoral process in Libya is the armed militias, Where its elements in the Libyan west threatened to use violence and prevent the electoral process.
Libyan writer and political researcher Ezz El-Din Aqeel says that security is the biggest challenge facing Libya, and not just the elections, as the country suffers from security chaos, in contrast to the armed militias’ control on the ground since the fall of the regime of the late Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.
Libya is trying to overcome a major political crisis that has been going on since the fall of the Muammar Gaddafi regime in 2011, as the country entered a wave of armed conflict and chaos, and the people hope to hold the first election in its history, to build state institutions and push for stability.
The Libyan people are betting on the completion of the elections; In order to ensure the international community’s support for the road map.
In the same context, Abdulaziz Aqila, a professor of political science at the University of Sirte, called for the need to work on creating the necessary climate in the coming days on the part of the international community, by bringing the views of the political forces closer and adopting a plan with a timetable, which is the post-result stage in order to build state institutions quickly, and then stability and access to economic recovery.
The Libyan economy is betting on the path of recovery after the holding of the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for December 24.
square zero
“Zero Square” is the most dangerous scenario in the Libyan crisis, and Libyan Colonel Muhammad Faraj Othman says that the only chance to save Libya is the success of the parliamentary and presidential elections process, so that the Libyans can build state institutions and agencies once again.
The Libyan military analyst explained that returning to square one is the biggest danger now, which is rejected by international powers, whether Europe or the United States.
Libyans have high hopes for these elections to restore stability to their country after more than a decade of turmoil, but some fear a setback that will bring the situation back to ground zero.
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