The surprise victory of the rebel forces against the Bashar al-Assad regime brings the possibility of a massive return of the almost seven million Syrian refugees who fled the civil war. Türkiye did not want to wait and has announced that it will open the border for the up to four million Syrians living in the Eurasian republic to return to their homeland. After almost a decade since the Ankara Government welcomed the displaced, the consequences on the Ottoman economy if there is a mass march could be immediate: price coolingchanges in the labor market and reduction in consumption. But it can also be a opportunity for your companies.
The Syrian peso in the Turkish economy
Since the civil war began, Türkiye has become the main destination for Syrian refugees. In 2015, the number of displaced people exceeded 2.5 million, according to data from the World Bank. Thousands of displaced people have been integrated into the Turkish economy, which a decade later has consolidated its position in the production of the Eurasian nation. Currently, more than 20,000 companies in Türkiye belong to Syrians who took refuge in the country and the latest estimate (from 2019) says that the weight of the Arab community in Türkiye’s GDP was 2%.
What will happen if all those people leave Türkiye? The speed with which events occur has increased uncertainty in the Middle East. The Turkish Government has enabled an express procedure so that the Syrians leave the country, but with the counterpart that they will not be able to return.
The estimates indicate that more than 4 million Syrians live in Türkiyewhether under the status of refugee or immigrant. In the case of the labor market, the effect of this population is mixed: some research have estimated that the arrival of Syrians Unemployment has increased in areas with greater demographic tension while other studies believe that it has had a beneficial effect on economic dynamism, particularly encouraging exports.
The short-term consequence of this possible massive departure is a reduction in productivity, but also at the same time cooling of the economy due to the drop in consumption. Türkiye is currently facing hyperinflation since the pandemic.
Ankara, spearhead of reconstruction
After 13 years of civil war and the earthquake that devastated the north of the country in February 2023, Syria now faces a scenario of reconstruction of major cities and its battered economy. In this context, the role of the Government of Recep Tayyip Erdo?an is preeminent compared to other actors.
Türkiye has been the main valetr of the rebel groups that took Damascus at the weekend and brought down the Baathist regime. This places Turkish companies in a position of clear advantage to obtain contracts from the rebels in Syria. Ankara’s presence has become permanent in the northern regions of Syria bordering the Ottoman country, where the rebels have been based for years. The influence is such that the turkish lira has become, de facto, the currency of current usedisplacing the official Syrian currency.
Europe suspends applications for political asylum
The possible massive return is a matter of interest for several nations. Up to 7 million Syrians live in other countries, concentrating 5.5 million in four countries: Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt. The rest are dispersed in different countries, mainly in the European Union.
Several Member States, including Germany which hosts 850,000 refugeesthey have already announced that applications will be paralyzed of political asylum awaiting developments.
The situation in Syria is far from having stabilized: rebel forces supported by the Turkish army are facing Kurdish militiaswho have controlled eastern Syria since 2012. The Kurds have been allies of the United States and were the main drivers of the war against the Islamic State while regular forces and rebels concentrated in the west of the country. Besides, Israel has taken positions in southern Syria and is launching bombing raids throughout the country with the aim of destroying the Syrian army’s arsenal.
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