Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized a military operation in Ukraine three days after formally recognizing the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics. (in the Donbas).
(Read here: Russian invasion of Ukraine: fighting in Chernobyl is reported)
(Due to the public interest that the events between Russia and Ukraine arouse, all our coverage of that invasion and related actions will have free access for all readers of EL TIEMPO)
The United States and other Western governments have strongly condemned Russia’s actions, which violate international law and Ukraine’s sovereignty, and have indicated that they will impose targeted sanctions on responsible Russian officials, among other targets.
These developments constitute a sharp escalation of the Russian-driven crisis on Ukraine’s borders and signal the collapse of the Minsk peace accords over the state of Donetsk and Lugans.k.
(You may be interested in: In photos: this is Ukraine after the attack by Russia)
Putin’s formal recognition of the regions and authorization of “peacekeeping” troop deployments came in response to what was almost certainly a fabrication by his government and pro-Russian rebels of a sharp increase in bombing in Donetsk and Lugansk, which Russia and the rebels have attributed to the Ukrainian side.
Pro-Russian rebels in Donetsk and Lugansk since February 18 claimed that the Ukrainian armed forces had been shelling rebel-held territories and claimed that Ukraine had been preparing to attack rebel-held territories to regain control of that land. Putin backed up that narrative.
First stage
One of the scenarios is that after the recognition of the Donbas region, intense fighting in Donetsk and Lugansk similar to that of 2014 will continue in the coming days, while the Ukrainian forces try to protect the country.
Maintaining a low-level conflict in 2014 served Russia’s goals of destabilizing Ukraine, keep it out of NATO and the European Union and retain significant influence in Ukraine.
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Russia’s recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk undermines Russia’s pursuit of these goals and reduces its influence as it puts pressure on Ukraine and the West. As such, it is assessed that Russia in the coming weeks will seek to expand the area under its control to ensure its ability to influence Ukraine. The Ukrainian regions that are under threat of a Russian military attack are Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk.
The West and NATO strongly condemned these actions and increased economic and military assistance to Ukraine, but assured that they will not send their troops to help Ukraine fight Russia.
Most Likely Scenario: ‘Limited’ Invasion
Another scenario is that Russia is pursuing a larger-scale military attack on Ukraine. Russia currently maintains up to 190,000 troops near Ukraine, including in Belarus and Crimea, and on Ukraine’s eastern borders with Russia.
Putin’s speech on February 21 suggested that his government is prepared to absorb new economic sanctions. The perceived benefit of undermining Ukrainian statehood for Putin can credibly outweigh the high cost (human casualties, sanctions, and international pariah status) of a full-scale invasion.
Although Ukraine did not escalate the fighting in the east, Putin in early February claimed that the Ukrainian government was carrying out “genocide” against Russian passport holders in Donetsk and Luhansk, and on February 21 demanded that Ukraine “cease the violence” in these regions or face “responsibility for the resulting bloodshed”.
(In other news: Ukraine and Russia: Is there a danger of a Third World War?)
Under this scenario, the Ukrainian regions that are most threatened are Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and possibly Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv.
An invasion of Kiev and regime change in Ukraine are considered unlikely, because the Ukrainians would almost certainly mount an armed insurgency and Russia would almost certainly have a hard time persuading the Ukrainians to accept a Russian-installed government, which would make the entire the Russian operation was unsustainable in the long term.
However, the level of destruction in Ukraine would be enormous under such a scenario, generating unprecedented refugee flows from Ukraine to neighboring Poland, Moldova, Romania and Slovakia.
Outlier: attempted return to diplomacy
Finally, in the latter scenario, Russia could use the military threat to force Ukraine to negotiate a new ceasefire agreement and enter into direct talks with the rebel leaders, while continuing to demand security guarantees from NATO and its allies.
Russia would keep its troops close to Ukraine to maintain pressure and further destabilize Ukraine economically and politically, and the crisis would persist through most of 2022.
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