Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, concerns arose about the possibility of using nuclear weapons as the conflict escalated.
Statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin that he was mobilizing “deterrent forces” – that is, his nuclear weapons – raised alarm that Moscow might use “tactical” nuclear weapons.
This does not mean an all-out nuclear war, but it does mean a dramatic development.
What are tactical nuclear weapons?
Tactical nuclear weapons are those that could be used over relatively short distances.
This distinguishes them from the “strategic” nuclear weapons that, during the Cold War, the two warring superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, threatened to launch.
These types of missiles can travel long distances.
However, the term “tactical” refers to many types of weapons, including smaller bombs and missiles used as “battlefield” weapons.
What tactical nuclear weapons does Russia have?
Russia is believed to have some 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons.
These can be placed on various types of missiles that are normally used to deliver conventional bombs.
They can even be fired like artillery shells on a battlefield.
They have also been developed for aircraft and ships, for example torpedoes and depth charges for targeting submarines.
These warheads are believed to be in storage facilities, rather than deployed and ready to fire.
The concern of the international community is that Russia might be willing to use smaller tactical weapons instead of larger strategic missiles.
“They may believe that the use of smaller arms does not cross the red line that transforms war into a nuclear conflict. They could see it as a use of conventional forces,” says Patricia Lewis, head of the international security program at the group. of experts Chatham House.
How powerful are those weapons?
Tactical nuclear weapons vary greatly in size and power.
The smallest can be a kiloton or less (equivalent to a thousand tons of the explosive TNT).
The largest can reach 100 kilotons.
The effects would depend on the size of the warhead, how far from the ground it detonates, and the local environment.
But for comparison, the bomb that killed about 146,000 people in Hiroshima, Japan, during World War II, was 15 kilotons.
Russia’s largest strategic weapons are believed to be at least 800 kilotons.
What is Putin’s strategy?
Putin has made more than one reference to Russia’s nuclear weapons, apparently trying to create a sense of fear.
US spies see this as a dedicated signal to the West to persuade it not to intervene in Ukraine, not as a sign that it is planning a nuclear war.
But others worry that while the chances are low, Russia may, under certain conditions, be tempted to use a smaller tactical weapon during the invasion.
“Putin is comfortable in the world of ‘stability-instability,’ while the West is deterred by his nuclear bravado as if NATO’s $1 billion deterrent is fake,” tweeted Mariana Budjeryn, a nuclear expert at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Could its use be counterproductive?
Putin claims that Ukraine is part of Russia, so using nuclear weapons on its territory seems strange.
Russia itself is a close distance away and “the consequences could cross borders,” warns Patricia Lewis.
The only time nuclear weapons were used in conflict was by the United States at the end of World War II against Japan.
The consequences were catastrophic. Would Putin want to become the first leader to break the taboo and use them?
Some worry that he has already shown a willingness to do things that others thought he would not.
Either by invading the Ukraine or using a nerve agent in the English town of Salisbury.
Williams says there is another reason Russia might not use nuclear weapons: China.
“Russia relies heavily on Chinese support, but China has a ‘don’t be the first to use’ nuclear weapons doctrine. So if Putin did that it would be incredibly difficult for China to support him. would lose China,” adds the expert.
Could the use of “tactical” weapons lead to nuclear war?
No one knows exactly where the use of tactical nuclear weapons would lead. It could escalate and Putin would not want a nuclear war.
But making a miscalculation is always a risk.
“They will think that if they use them, the whole world will capitulate,” says Patricia Lewis.
“But what would happen is that NATO would have to intervene in the conflict and respond.”
The United States says it is monitoring the situation closely.
The US has an extensive intelligence-gathering machine to watch Russian nuclear activity and see if, for example, tactical weapons are being pulled from storage or if there is any change in the behavior of launch sites.
So far, they say they haven’t seen any significant changes.
It is difficult to predict how the United States and NATO would respond to any use of nuclear weapons.
They may not want to escalate the situation further and risk all-out nuclear war, but they may also want to draw a line.
This could mean a harsh conventional rather than nuclear response.
But what would Russia do then?
“Once you’ve crossed the nuclear threshold, there’s no obvious stopping point,” says James Acton, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank in Washington DC.
“I don’t think anyone can say what that world would be like.”
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BBC-NEWS-SRC: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-60797394, IMPORTING DATE: 2022-03-18 16:40:06
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