Sometimes tectonic shifts in geopolitics unfold in unexpected ways. While the world is focused on the latest developments in Ukraine, with many asking whether President Putin’s aggression is the beginning of a new, broader conflict in Europe (the answer is no), there are more subtle dynamics at play with the potential to have a considerably more serious impact.
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Among them is the question not only about peace in Europe, but the model and basic principles of coexistence of countries in the whole world. A model that, it should be noted, had allowed 80 years of relative peace and prosperity not only in that continent but among the main countries of the world.
(Due to the public interest that the events between Russia and Ukraine arouse, all of our coverage of that invasion and related actions will be freely accessible to all readers of TIME)
A symbol of this debate is the fact that it was while the United Nations Security Council, the cornerstone of the multilateral system in the post-world war era, was debating a possible peaceful solution to the conflict, when the warmongering autocrat in the Kremlin decided to launch his attack.
(You may be interested: Lessons from Ukraine)
It is too early to know exactly how the world geopolitical order will be impacted when the smoke has come down and the guns have been silenced in Ukraine. The truth is that the events highlight not only the vulnerability and fragility of peace in Eastern Europe, but also the fundamental concepts of coexistence between countries.
Multilateralism, the notion that many of the major problems facing the world cannot be solved by one country alone, but require rapprochement, trust, and collaboration between several or almost all countries, is once again under fire.
As if in recent years, between flows of migrants in Europe and the global pandemic of covid-19, border closures and selfish and nationalistic public health policies, the notion had not suffered enough. There has also been a resurgence for several years of authoritarian and nationalist rulers who, often from a populist perspective, they blame multilateralism precisely for the ills in the world.
For some, just as it happened at the dawn of the last great war in Europe, what we are seeing in slow motion in Ukraine and other parts of the world are once again the limits of multilateralism, the weakness of the United Nations above all, which authoritarian and nationalist leaders, determined and with great ambitions, have few options to face them.
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For these voices, what happened in Ukraine is one more example of the weakness of multilateralism, and a new impetus and justification for a resurgent nationalism of recent years. Faced with the impotence of multilateralism, says the dire logic of these people, one can only trust a “realistic” geopolitics, crude and harsh, and focused solely on national interests, to defend countries.
That logic is not only simplistic and wrong. It’s dangerous.
The architecture of multilateralism and the United Nations system are not responsible for what has happened in recent days.
If a member of a club disrespects its rules, and the other members do not intervene for fear of being affected themselves, the fault does not lie with the club and its rules. As Germany debated whether there was no way to save its beloved NordStream 2 pipeline despite clear signs of aggression from Russia, and Italy was debating how to sanction Russia but without jeopardizing its key exports, like luxury goods, to name just two examples, Putin was making his nefarious plans that are evident today.
If anything, what Russia’s attack shows us is that we need more multilateralism, not less. More commitment between nations, and a reaffirmation of the rules of the game.
Today, the main affected by the lack of empowerment of multilateralism will be the Ukrainian citizens. In the face of future pandemics, climate change, global migration, and other problems, we will all be affected if we do not reaffirm our commitment to multilateralism.
(Keep reading: Stopping Putin)
That exercise must begin today, with a concerted and significant response, so that Putin’s aggression does not enter the history books as a key piece in the dismantling of the current global order, but as a severe test that strengthened it.
OLIVER WACK
*Control Risks Manager for Colombia and the Andean Region
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