War of Ukraine “It’s already bubbling beneath the surface,” but could the people rise up against Putin? Three experts assess what will happen to Russia

Russian bombed-out smoky ruins in Ukraine, human distress and deaths shake the world.

How are Russia’s future prospects assessed in the light of domestic politics, international relations and the economy? BTI asked the professor of political history at the University of Helsinki for conclusions Juhana from AunesluomaFrom a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute From Jussi Lassila and from Nordea’s economist From Kristian Nummelin.

The West wants Russia to change

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could lead to exactly what Russia opposes, namely NATO’s expansion to the east.

Russia’s goals to change the security order in relation to Europe and the United States are therefore not being realized at all, and the country has played all its cards in relation to the West, Aunesluoma estimates. There is no prospect of a slowdown in international relations.

“The sooner it is realized that this is a permanent situation, the easier it will be to come up with ways to limit and prevent Russia’s aggression and influence efforts.”

In Aunesluoma’s most optimistic scenario, Russia would end the war and seek negotiating tables with the West. However, there would be no very understanding side, as the West believes that a lasting state of peace would only be achieved if Russia changed internally, sought genuine cooperation and was prepared for profound social change.

“Russia should go through a process somewhat similar to what Japan and Germany went through after World War II. At that time, they were reformed internally, accompanied by democratization and the strengthening of the rule of law. I don’t think that’s very likely. ”

President Vladimir Putin does not seem to be pursuing social reforms, but rather longs for a return to history and the power of a strong Soviet era.

However, Aunesluoma points out that Russia’s international weight is significantly weaker than it was during the Soviet Cold War.

“This is not about dealing with the kind of threat that the Soviet Union represented in the Cold War.”

Modern Russia is relevant in Aunesluoma’s estimates only because it is a nuclear power.

Putin’s own rules

Jussi Lassila of the Foreign Policy Institute compares Putin’s activities to the Communist Soviet Union To Joseph Stalin. According to Lassila, Putin’s Russia is in a sense even more dictatorial than the country was during Stalin’s rule. Stalin died in 1953 after leading the Soviet Union for about a quarter of a century.

Putin’s support party United Russia is a rubber stamp in Lassila’s words, and there is practically nothing in the lower house of the country’s parliament to bless Putin’s will.

“After all, in the Soviet Union, there was the highest governing body of the Communist Party, the Politburo, as well as the party itself, which oversaw that the leader of the country followed the chosen line. There was a mechanism that could also appoint a successor to the leader, but Russia does not have one. Everything rests on Putin. ”

The researcher estimates that Putin is primarily interested in his own position.

“He’s not voluntarily going anywhere at all.”

The time of misery is ahead

The Russian economy recovered rapidly from the crisis caused by the interest rate pandemic last year, the Bank of Finland in the review in January.

The employment situation in Russia has been good and has already recovered from the pitfall created by the corona pandemic and the fall in oil prices. Research firm Moody’s Analytics says Russia’s unemployment rate was just over 4 percent in January.

As a result of the war of aggression launched by Russia, poverty in the country is increasing and unemployment is rising.

“All the scenarios are bad. Some are even worse than others, ”sums up Nordea’s economist Kristian Nummel’s economic outlook.

He believes that most of the sanctions imposed by the West will remain in place for years, and this will significantly erode Russia’s long-term growth prospects.

“Confidence has been lost for a very long time, especially when the current administration is in operation. It is difficult to see substantial foreign investment in Russia. Sure, China can invest strategically in energy or mining, for example, but hardly big. ”

Nummelin points out that the West is gradually adapting to the sanctions itself, so there is no hurry to lift them.

China is not the savior

The outlook for oil and gas exports is significant for Russia, as energy is not on EU sanctions lists yet. In any case, Europe intends to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, and war will only accelerate development. At a meeting of EU leaders that ended on Friday night, steps were taken to break away from Russian energy, but no real bans on energy imports have yet been decided.

“About half of Russia’s exports are energy. Although oil is a global raw material, it is very difficult to sell it quickly elsewhere. It is even harder to export gas elsewhere than in Europe, where the pipelines have been built, ”Nummelin illustrates.

In his estimates, China is not the savior of the Russian economy, as the country does not want to take the risk that it, too, will be subject to Western sanctions if trade with Russia is clearly increased.

“China will certainly pick up those famous raisins from the bun and buy cheap energy, for example, but it cannot and may not want to replace the West with trade with Russia.”

Aunesluoma estimates that Russia has both a desire and a need to deepen its partnership with China. However, Russia’s position depends on the current relations between China and the United States and the competition between them.

“Russia’s position in a situation where it has broken its bridge to the west would depend on how China sees its need for Russia,” says Aunesluoma.

“Russia would have a role as a source of some kind of raw material and a military actor together to oppose the US global alliance.”

The elite is on Putin’s leash

Putin includes, among other things, a number of large businessmen exercising political and economic power. They are known to have deep pockets and complex property arrangements around the world to secure a thriving business and luxurious life.

“If you look at where the power lies, it’s Putin’s inner circle,” Lassila says.

The power struggle within the elite can be expected to increase, but that too could play into Putin’s bag.

“It doesn’t necessarily mean the elite will turn against Putin. This means that certain actors seek to improve their position in a situation where there is competition for leader popularity. For example, security services of this type are already underway. The security machinery is decentralized and, as it were, forced to fight against each other, ”describes Lassila.

Central to protecting the status of the ruler is that the elite is more dependent on the president than the president on it. Therefore, the conditions for the palace revolution are poor.

“If necessary, Putin can separate certain parts of these elite organizations, especially the security machinery, if he thinks they are no longer loyal to him.”

It is still possible that even within the elite, private thinking will be strengthened, which estimates that the consequences of Putin’s campaign are not going well.

“As dissatisfaction grows, the orders may not be carried out because there are no preconditions or desire for that. The problem is that Russia does not have the political institutions or structures through which a political counterweight can emerge. There is no instance that can take over that power ”.

The people of the Kremlin gates?

Could the Russian people, however, rise up against their leader and derail him from his seat, as happened to the tsar in the revolution that overthrew the empire a hundred years ago?

Lassila does not consider it very likely that power would change through a popular uprising. He estimates that Putin and the elite around him are quite well protected, and there are no casting flaws in the system where any actor could easily challenge the current government.

Lassila points out that it is more typical in Russian history that power changes with the train of the elite.

“Is there a precondition among the people for an agency that would seem to take it within the walls of the Kremlin, that is not the tradition in Russia,” he said.

The recent constitutional reform has increasingly concentrated power on the president, and therefore there is not much concentration of power in different parts of the country, even if dissatisfaction among the people increases, Lassila points out.

The conditions for the Russian opposition to operate are poor, and Putin’s too-vocal opponents are imprisoned. The cementing of the president’s power is also facilitated by the internal tearing of the opposition.

“The opposition is not unanimous, but is kind of forced into consensus. But it is already bubbling beneath the surface. ”