In 2017, the Islamic State (IS) lost its last stronghold in Iraq, after months of military disputes with an international coalition led by the United States. In 2019, the same process took place in Syria, indicating a gradual weakening of the jihadist group's activities in the Middle East.
However, in recent years, its activities have gained momentum again, with the recruitment of new members, the creation of smaller cells involved in internal conflicts in countries, and a series of attacks in the region, in Europe, Asia and Africa.
The war between Israel and the Palestinian militia Hamas, enemy of the self-declared caliphate, has further boosted the terrorist organization, which is showing a revival in the world. Proof of this is that, in December, Turkey arrested more than 300 people suspected of links to IS networks, in a simultaneous operation in 32 provinces
Last week, the group claimed responsibility for an attack in the city of Kerman, Iran, which resulted in the deaths of almost a hundred people. The episode took place during a ceremony marking the fourth anniversary of the death of Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, assassinated in an airstrike by American forces.
Another recent case occurred in Syria, this Tuesday (9), where at least 12 members of government forces died and another 20 were injured in an attack linked to terrorists against the bus in which they were traveling through the province of Homs, according to the NGO Observatory. Syrian for Human Rights (OSDH).
Data collected by BBC Monitoringa service from the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), point out that IS claimed in total more than 800 attacks globally from January to November last year, a lower number than in 2022, a period in which more than a thousand attacks were linked to terrorists.
Despite this, the American Enterprise institute, based in the United States, which also investigates the activities of terrorist groups, indicated that the jihadist threat persists throughout Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Europe.
According to the organization, groups affiliated with Al Qaeda and the Islamic State are involved in local conflicts in these parts of the world and have been looking for ways to strengthen themselves on the ground, within the scope of popular insurrections.
In the American institute's analysis, these smaller groupings, linked to a larger force, seek to develop transnational attack capabilities against the West, creating a continuous need for financing for counterterrorism activities by the United States and allies.
IS-linked groups in Iraq, Syria and Yemen have lost leaders and key agents during local Western operations, yet they remain threats within those territories. They seek to develop and refine attack capabilities that cross borders.
The pressure of anti-terrorism actions prevented the reconquest of lands lost by IS, however the departure of troops from these countries, as is expected to happen in Iraq after the American attacks, and the growing regional tensions create opportunities for these terrorist groups to strengthen.
In Iraq and Syria, counterterrorism pressure on the Islamic State has caused the group to adapt, altering its command structure and limiting attacks to rebuild its bases. The losses occurred mainly within the organization's global leadership, including those conducting attacks in Europe.
Even with defeats in Iraq, IS continues to sustain a low-intensity local insurgency, while at the same time carrying out targeted attacks in Syria, especially against prisons to free its senior members. A highlight was observed in central Syria, where there was a strengthening of the group, demonstrating the ability to mobilize maneuver forces as part of a multi-phase campaign.
Analysts suggest that increasing Turkish aggression against the Syrian Democratic Forces, the US counterterrorism partner in the country's northeast, could reduce pressure on IS in the coming years.
In northwestern Syria, the al Qaeda-affiliated group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) controls Idlib province. Although HTS has sought to distance itself from its jihadist roots in recent years, it still provides refuge to foreign terrorist groups such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and Khatiba al Tawhid wa al Jihad.
In Yemen, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains committed to redeveloping its transnational attack capabilities and persists as a regional threat. Its top leadership remains intact, although the wear and tear of conflicts has affected the group's operations.
AQAP has entered into a military dispute with counter-terrorism forces in southern Yemen, introducing new capabilities with unmanned aerial systems and with increasing intensity. A growth in its operations was observed in May last year.
According to the institute, the Islamic State in Yemen continues on a downward trajectory, serving as a financial and facilitation link between IS-Somalia and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), in Afghanistan.
In West Africa, a series of coups d'état destabilized the region, forcing Western military bases to leave the territories, as was the case in France after the institutional crisis in Niger, which interrupted certain counterterrorism operations in the country and adjacent territories. , such as Mali, which since the withdrawal of French military troops has seen the role of militias grow drastically in the territory over the past year, mainly in the Menaka region, in the northeast of the country.
According to information from the American Enterprise, the Islamic State branch of Somalia serves as a hub that connects other cells, such as Afghan, African and Yemeni cells, to the group's senior leadership team in Iraq and Syria. Both the Islamic State of Mozambique (ISM) and the Islamic State of Central Africa Province (ISCAP) maintain public affiliation with the Islamic State, although it is unknown how much influence IS's top leaders maintain over the groups.
In North Africa, Egyptian counterterrorism pressure on the Islamic State's Sinai Province (ISSP) has significantly weakened the group. The ISSP has moved into western Sinai and has conducted only one attack in 2023 against an Egyptian military vehicle, in southern Sinai in March.
The weak governance of leaders in these countries, which are generally not democratic, coupled with internal conflicts and political grievances fuel terrorist forces to act and expand their actions. Some African countries that are influenced by IS are Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Ghana and Senegal.
In West Africa, the military junta of Mali and Burkina Faso have failed to weaken JNIM or the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and have continued to undermine international support for the fight against terrorism, leading the UN to declare that it will withdraw its peacekeeping force in Mali.
In Asia, the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan has also created an opportunity for growth for the jihadist threat, which finds in the country a space for training recruits and protecting against counter-terrorism pressure, facilitating the development of affiliated militias and strengthening the power of the self-declared caliphate. .
Today, IS's main sources of income are kidnappings, drug trafficking, smuggling of works of art and archaeological relics, and private financing of terrorist sympathizers. At the height of its power from 2014 to 2017, the Islamic State ruled millions of people and claimed responsibility for several attacks around the world.
The main leader of the terrorist group, Ab
u Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in an attack by US special forces in Northwest Syria in 2019, a fact that caused a strong crisis in the organization and contributed to its decline.
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