Venezuela held a referendum this Sunday to consult its citizens about the territorial dispute with Guyana and the fate of the Essequibo territory. Until now, there are many readings about what happened, not only geopolitically and legally, but also politically and electorally.
(Also read: What comes after the Venezuelan referendum to annex an area in dispute with Guyana?)
During the campaign, the Government of Nicolás Maduro deployed a strategy typical of Chavismobut without as much waste as in the best times of the oil boom when kitchens, refrigerators, washing machines, food and more were given away.
On this occasion, social networks, the media, artists and singers were the protagonists of “5 Times Yes”. That is, five questions to support, among other things, the establishment of the Guayana Esequiba state, a project that in itself is neither new nor typical of the ruling party.
However, in electoral matters, it seems that not everything went as expected. Empty voting centers with little turnout of voters and, mostly, elderly people, a pattern that has been repeated in recent elections.
But, despite this, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced on Sunday night a participation of 10,554,320 voters, while on Monday afternoon, its rector, Elvis Amoroso, corrected and announced a figure of 10,431,907.
The mess of voting figures
For the opposition leader, Henrique Capriles, only 2,110,864 voters voted, which represents an abstention of 89.8% in a census with 20.69 million voters. There are explanations that suggest that the CNE figures rather correspond to the multiplication of that number of votes by the number of questions.
The big dilemma that the opposition will have now is to face these new referendum results, without weakening confidence in the electoral system.
In all the chaos, the number of voters is in dispute. For the analyst and director of the Datanalisis firm, Luis Vicente León, the results of the referendum failed to generate the matrix of success that the Government was looking for, especially in demonstrating its machinery.
This is in contrast to the recent opposition primaries in which participation exceeded 2.5 million and which saw María Corina Machado as the winner, who opposed participation in Sunday’s process.
But the complicated part of this would be the opposition’s actions. “The big dilemma that the opposition will have now is to face these new results of the referendum, without weakening confidence in the electoral system, which will also serve as a basis for the 2024 presidential elections where they need their people to actively participate.”
If the opposition risks generating distrust in the electoral referee, “the more difficult it will be to mobilize voters opposed to the presidential elections. This represents a strong risk of promoting abstention, which in other cases has been gold dust for Chavismo.”
The lines of analysis coincide. For political scientist Daniel Arias, the CNE remained an “absolutely questioned organization” giving rise to those critics who can now ask for a comprehensive review of it for a change of rectors.
“What happened yesterday (Sunday) was a true catastrophe for the political position of the Government of Nicolás Maduro and even opened the doors to many of his political enemies who are now asking for a new candidate within the official sector.”
At the level of the dispute
The credibility of the results will continue to be debated while the new steps in the dispute remain to be seen.
Maduro said that “he will do justice” and that “now” he will recover the Essequibo, in controversy since 1840 and with several milestones such as the Paris Award of 1899, the Geneva Agreement of 1966, and the latest actions of 2015 (before the United Nations). United) and 2018 (before the International Court of Justice), both unilateral to Guyana.
But neither Maduro nor the defense team, led by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, have indicated what the steps will be from now on, especially when in April the Court must give a ruling on the dispute.
“We must assume that this enormous political defeat will require the Government to launch itself fully into any type of political-military adventure in order to overcome this defeat,” insists political scientist Daniel Arias.
We must assume that this enormous political defeat will require the Government to launch itself into any type of political-military adventure in order to overcome this defeat.
For his part, the president of Guyana, Irfaan Ali, assured that “there is nothing to fear” after the referendum. Even that same day, a campaign was deployed in the streets of his country in defense of what they consider their territory.
“Essequibo belongs to Guyana” was read on the streets.
“Our vigilance will be maximum, but we are working tirelessly to ensure that our borders remain intact and that the population and our country continue to be safe,” insisted Ali, who took advantage of COP28 to speak with his Cuban counterpart to ask him to mediate the situation.
Another country that is involved is Brazil, not only because it borders both States, but because it apparently is committed to stability. This Monday, Brasilia stated that it continues to talk at a high level with the authorities of Venezuela and Guyana, waiting for a peaceful solution to their dispute over 160,000 square kilometers. A territory also rich in oil, gas and minerals.
“We are talking at a high level with both countries and we hope that the solution to this situation will be peaceful,” said the secretary for Latin America of the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Gisela Padovan, in statements to journalists in Rio de Janeiro.
The diplomat refrained from commenting on the result of the consultation held on Sunday in Venezuela and in which the vast majority of Venezuelans supported the annexation of that area to the Venezuelan map. “This is an internal matter for Venezuela. So much so that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) did not rule on the plebiscite but on any measure that alters the current situation,” Padovan stated.
ANA MARÍA RODRÍGUEZ BRAZÓN
TIME CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
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