The electoral engines begin to heat up in Venezuela. Finally, the opposition decided that on October 22 it will hold primary elections to choose the candidate who will face Chavismo in 2024 in the presidential elections.
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However, this has not been a reason for unity among the opponents. There are several applicants for the Miraflores chair, held by Nicolás Maduro for 10 years, and not all want to go to primaries.
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The last time that Venezuela carried out a process like this was in 2012, just one year before the death of President Hugo Chávez. That year they thought that, with Maduro being the opponent, it would be a little easier to fight. At that time, the primaries gave Henrique Capriles Radonski the winner.
The results were as follows: Henrique Capriles obtained 63 percent (1,806,860 votes); Pablo Pérez, 30 percent (867,601 votes); María Corina Machado, 3 percent (103,500 votes); Diego Arria, 1 percent (35,070 votes), and Pablo Medina, 0.5 percent (14,009 votes).
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Today, Capriles and Machado intend to compete in the presidential elections, but it is not clear if they will participate in the primariesorganized by members of civil society grouped into what they have called the National Commission for Primaries, and which seeks to carry out the process “in such a way that legitimacy is generated”, according to what its president, Professor Jesús María Casal, has said.
Capriles – who has run twice, first against Chávez and then against Maduro – has agreed with the process and believes that disqualifying the mechanism only helps the ruling party.
For his part, María Corina Machado has insisted that the event must be held without the support of the National Electoral Council. “We are facing a criminal, perverse system, willing to do anything to stay in power, within which the CNE is one of its most horrible instruments and executioners: we have had 33 elections,” Machado said.
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From abroad, Leopoldo López does not bet on the process and assures that both Capriles and Manuel Rosales, governor of the state of Zulia, do not want to measure themselves and that they prefer consensus.
Casal has asked for the collaboration of “everyone” to carry out the mechanism because “the only way for the primaries to be successful is for there to be unity” and thus “achieve a candidacy to win the presidential elections.”
We are facing a criminal, perverse system, willing to do anything to stay in power, within which the CNE is one of its most horrible instruments and executioners: we have had 33 elections.
The commission believes that asking the CNE for support is valid. Casal told EL TIEMPO that in the next few days they expect a meeting with the directors of the organization to request that at least the voting centers be enabled and thus facilitate the development of the primaries.
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However, the use of fingerprint capture machines – which makes voting fast and automated – has not yet been defined. On this point arises part of the differences. María Corina Machado insists that the implementation of the machines does not guarantee the process and therefore demands that it not be done with the support of the CNE; otherwise, their involvement is unclear.
On the other hand, Delsa Solórzano, from the Encuentro Ciudadano organization, insists that it is important to safeguard voter data, as she says that, as has happened in other events, the ruling party can retaliate against them.
The vote of Venezuelans abroad, which would be about four million, would not be included either. Casal explained that they are evaluating it. Machado has also been critical of that point.
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From May 8 to 23 will be the preliminary registration of the pre-candidates. Then, the period of official applications goes from May 24 to June 23. The disabled, as in the case of Capriles, can participate.
Surveys and opinion studies have revealed that the intention to vote in primaries would be in favor of María Corina Machado. The recent study by the Polianalitic pollster indicates that 14 percent of Venezuelans would vote for her. In that poll, Manuel Rosales obtained 12 percent; humorist Benjamín Rausseo, 11 percent; Capriles, 9 percent, and Juan Guaidó, 7 percent.
The latter told the media: “I will not leave Venezuelans alone.” But he did not answer if he will be a candidate.
For the political scientist Gabriel Flores, “The substance” of the primaries is that it is not a question of a winner that prevails over the rest, but of a process that generates confidence and union of the opposition forces and also a road map.
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The “vindication of the vote as a tool for political participation and expression of civility” is also sought, insists Flores, who recalls that the confidence of Venezuelans in the vote must be rescued.
According to the pollster Datincorp, if today were the presidential elections, the fight would be between Machado (17 percent) and Maduro (16 percent). The rest of the results would be divided between Benjamín Rausseo with 12 percent, Manuel Rosales with 9 percent, Henrique Capriles with 7 percent, and Juan Guaidó with 2 percent. The option ‘other candidates’ obtained 6 percent; that of ‘none’, 24 percent, and ‘don’t know’, 7 percent.
ANA MARIA RODRIGUEZ BRAZON
WEATHER CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
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