The presidential primaries in Michigan (USA) this Tuesday, February 27, are not only a reflection of the internal Democratic political pulse around the response to the war in the Middle East, but also offer a vision of the general elections. While President Joe Biden faces rifts within his own party, former President Donald Trump seeks to consolidate Republican leadership with another victory, which would bring him even closer to securing his nomination as the party's candidate.
The last stop before Super Tuesday. The Michigan presidential primary this Tuesday, February 27, will define President Joe Biden's management ability within the Democratic Party to unite efforts amid criticism of his response to the war in Gaza. For his part, former President Donald Trump, the Republican favorite, is heading for a new electoral victory.
Michigan is the last major stop on the election calendar before Super Tuesday on March 5, when more than a dozen states will hold elections with thousands of delegates at stake.
For this reason, the primaries in Michigan are followed to give an idea of the pulse prior to the November elections. Michigan was a key stronghold that led to Trump's victory in 2016, when he won 16 delegates by a narrow margin of more than 10,000 votes. Republicans had not won there since 1988. Biden won the state back for Democrats in 2020 and helped defeat Trump.
The keys to understanding the primaries in Michigan
Biden does not face a relevant opposition figure within his party, but voters in Michigan have the option of selecting “uncommitted” delegates, which could allow them to express discontent with the decisions of the president and current Democratic candidate on the war in Gaza. The state has a large population of Arab Americans, so there is pressure there to advocate for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict, which could increase votes in the “uncommitted” box instead of Biden.
In each primary, what is at stake is a certain number of delegates assigned by the parties to each state. According to the popular vote in each primary, the candidates add delegates, who will be representatives at the national convention and will elect the party's presidential candidate. “Uncommitted” or “superdelegates” are not tied to the outcome of their state and can vote for whoever they want.
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A group of elected officials joined together in a campaign to promote the endorsement of “uncommitted” for this Tuesday. Although it is not usual for a massive vote to occur for this option, depending on the result, it could give some guidance on what will happen in November.
Biden's team has already taken this option into account. In Dearborn, a suburb of more than 109,000 inhabitants southwest of Detroit, with a Muslim and Arab American population that exceeds 50%, the Biden team sent senior Administration officials to meet with leaders of that community.
Although Biden's “Listen to Michigan” campaign manager, Julie Chávez Rodríguez, and other political advisors visited the state, they found that several community leaders were not willing to meet with them.
Biden visited Michigan on February 1 to appeal to union voters, while Vice President Kamala Harris was in the state last Thursday to address abortion issues and defend reproductive rights. On Saturday, Biden participated in a campaign organizing call with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Michigan Democratic Party Chairwoman Lavora Barnes. The results of these efforts will be seen this Tuesday.
Republicans face complex process
In the Republican field, the primaries represent only the first phase of a complex process to secure delegates. Less than a third of the state's 55 Republican delegates will be up for grabs Tuesday. The remainder will be allocated in 13 congressional district meetings scheduled for March 2. However, this process is complicated by an internal dispute in the Michigan Republican Party, with current and former chairs holding opposing events to allocate delegates on the same day.
Trump endorsed the faction led by former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who was recently recognized by the Republican National Committee as its new chairman.
Republican Nikki Haley spent recent weeks campaigning in her home state of South Carolina, where Trump defeated her.
Haley campaigned briefly in Oakland and the western Michigan Republican hub of Grand Rapids on Monday. Both places have a wide range of Republican and independent voters and target the voter Haley seeks: one beyond the conservative core, which in Michigan, as elsewhere, is overwhelmingly loyal to Trump.
But in Michigan there is little interest from anti-Trump Republicans. Peter Meijer was elected to the U.S. House from Grand Rapids in 2020, and was later defeated for re-election after voting to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, which followed the violent siege of the Capitol on January 6, 2020. 2021.
Why is the Republican process different?
The Republican primary in Michigan has a unique format, a direct reflection of the political tensions and reforms introduced after the chaotic candidate selection process in 2020. As President Biden reshaped the 2024 election calendar, relocating South Carolina and Michigan as the first states and reducing the power of Iowa and New Hampshire, Republicans rejected the proposed date for the Michigan primary.
The party's national rules prohibited holding primaries before March 1, leading to a series of political negotiations. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, along with a Democratic-controlled legislature, opted to move up the primary date to Feb. 27, defying party restrictions.
In response, the Michigan Republican Party and the Republican National Committee designed a hybrid model to ensure equal representation of candidates. This model allocates 16 delegates during the primary and 39 at a subsequent state convention, where delegates are awarded proportionally.
The primary elections in Michigan are of great importance for both partiess, with Biden and Trump among the favorites. In Biden's case, his historic victory in every county in Michigan in 2020 against Bernie Sanders, who had triumphed in the state's primary in 2016, puts him in a strong position to repeat that victory this year.
In Michigan, the electoral weight of the primaries is evident from the participation figures. With around 8.1 million registered voters in April 2023, turnout in the 2020 presidential primaries was 21% Democratic and 9% Republican.
This trend continued in the 2016 primaries, with 16% Democratic and 18% Republican participation. In the 2022 state midterm primaries, early voting represented approximately 55% of the total, surpassing the 35% percentage recorded in the 2020 presidential primaries.
As of Friday, more than 913,200 votes had already been cast in the 2024 presidential primaries, showing the interest of the electorate in these primary elections.
With AP
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