US Presidential Elections 2024, Trumpnomics & Co: here are the ideas in play
In less than 72 hours, Iowa will officially begin the highly anticipated primaries that will elect the future president of the United States of America. Biden holds the reins of the leading Democratic candidate firmly, while among the Republican wing things are not so linear and obvious, despite Trump having a certain advantage over his “competitors”: Ron De Santis and Nikki Haley.
The economic program could certainly tip the balance, made explicit on each electoral platform; respectively: Donald Trump's “Agenda 47”, Ron De Santis' “Declaration of Economic Independence” and Nikki Haley's “Freedom Plan”.
Analyzing the program of former President Trump, we can see tax cuts and government federalism as well as strong deregulation in the energy and environmental fields. In short, a liberal-populist program that confirms previous proposals in 2016 and 2020. The program of Ron De Santis tangibly follows that of the Tycoon: flat tax, limiting the independence of the Federal Reserve e cut in funds for companies attentive to DEI – Diversity, Equity, Inclusion.
Finally Nikki Haley, with hers Freedom Plan which is indeed a conservative program, but more flexible in terms of immigration and climate change. As Moreno Bertoldi writes on Ispi, Haley focuses her criticism on “Joe Biden's socialism”, which “has made America poorer and more dependent on the federal government.” Reduction of public debt, reduction of the role of the state in the economy, deregulation are the workhorses of the Freedom Plan.
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In the dialectic between liberalism and ethno-nationalist populism, with Trump and De Santis it is the latter that prevails, while with Haley the former prevails.
Upon a more specific analysis, the energy issue is certainly the most “unitary” among the three candidates, who agree on the need to return to energy independence for the United States, massively relaunching the production of fossil fuels, resuming and accelerating the construction of gas and oil pipelines, and rediscovering nuclear energy.
Furthermore – adds Ispi – since climate change is considered a “Chinese hoax” to weaken the American economy, Trump, De Santis and Haley agree on the need to abandon the Paris Agreement, abolish the regulations and subsidies introduced by Biden to encourage the production of clean energy, ban ESG standards, relaunch the traditional automotive sector by revoking the incentives in favor of the production and sale of electric cars contained in the Inflation Reduction Act.
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There is more plurality on attitudes towards China; or rather, for everyone he is the number one enemy, but while Trump and De Santis put forward proposals that would lead to a rapid decoupling of the American economy from the Chinese one, Haley declares himself against the Dragon but has not proposed anything concrete. The measures of the two rivals instead contemplate a four-year plan to eliminate all imports of essential goods from the Asian country (Trump) e the ban on US companies sharing cutting-edge technologies with Chinese companies and would ban the import of Chinese goods produced using intellectual property “stolen” from the United States (De Santis).
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The The field on which Nikki Haley's Freedom Plan focuses most is the budget: the need to consolidate it, reducing deficits and public debt. Haley's proposed budget adjustment falls entirely on the contraction in public spending, writes Bertoldi. In this regard, Haley proposes to impose a limit on federal spending linked to its percentage of the economy. Furthermore would veto any budget that does not return federal spending to pre-Covid levels and reform welfare programs (Social Security, Medicare), gradually reducing some benefits.
On the spending side, both Trump and De Santis are much more cautious than Haley. Sure, both announce drastic cuts in federal spending, but remain vague on the details (and at the same time predict increases in defense spending). Furthermore both Trump and De Santis, aware of the political costs of reforming welfare programs, have ruled out any cuts. In both the case of Trump's and De Santis' economic programs, the reduction in revenue would be more important than the cut in expenditure. As a result, only particularly strong growth (both promise an average growth rate above 3%) could lead to a stabilization or reduction of US government debt.
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