US citizens go to the polls this Tuesday (Nov 8, 2022) to vote in the midterm elections (midterm elections). All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for grabs. Another 36 states also elect governors.
The renewal of Congress will reflect the power that the Republican and Democratic parties will wield in controlling the government agenda and in congressional committees. They will serve as a thermometer for the approval of the president’s term Joe Bidenelected in 2020 in the race against Donald Trump.
Midterm elections are held in even years, in the interval between presidential elections, on the opening Tuesday of November – 23 months after the inauguration of the incumbent of the White House.
In addition to the election of representatives – which also include state congressmen, local authorities and part of the mayors –, 37 states will also consult the population in plebiscites and referendums on topics of local scope. In all, there will be 136 “ballot measures” distributed across the country.
Topics include marijuana legalization, requirements for access to the vote, raising the minimum wage and, most importantly, abortion. THE jurisprudence that ensured the right to terminate a pregnancy throughout the country since 1973 was revised by the Supreme Court in June, leaving the decision to each state until there is a federal law on the matter.
In the United States, voting is not mandatory. Those over 18 with record are eligible to vote, with varying rules for each state. Unlike Brazil, the vote is not registered in an electronic ballot box. Voters fill out a ballot inside the voting booth. Then they deposit it in the urn.
CHAMBER
The Chamber is completely renewed every 2 years. The party that reaches 218 deputies has the majority. Under the system, each of the 50 states is entitled to a seat in the Chamber. The other 385 are divided proportionally among the most populous states.
Currently, Democrats have a slight advantage in the Lower House, with 220 seats. Republicans have 212. Another 3 seats are vacant due to resignation or death of congressman.
According to research by the digital newspaper Political, the House of Representatives tends to become Republican in the next legislature. The survey shows Trump’s favorite party to take 216 seats.
Among the contested seats:
- 162 are considered “solids” for the Republicans (with a wide lead to win);
- 37 are “likely” (with relatively safe advantage);
- 17 are “perhaps” (with small advantage).
For the Democrats, the expectation is to secure at least 193 seats.
Of these:
- 146 are “solid”;
- 19 are “likely”;
- 28 are “perhaps”.
Others 26 seats follow undefinedaccording to Political.
SENATE
In the Senate, the term is 6 years, with elections for about ⅓ of the seats every 2 years. Each state has 2 seats, regardless of population size.
The majority of the Upper House is secured with 51 senators. However, in the case of an equal division (50 to 50), the Vice President of the United States – today, the Democrat Kamala Harris– plays the tiebreaker as president of the Senate, a position he also holds.
At the lifting of Political, the composition of the Senate for 2023 remains undefined. The Democratic Party must elect candidates in 10 states. Already 19 tend to choose a congressman from the Republican Party:
Democrats
- “Solids”: California, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon and Vermont;
- “Likely”: Connecticut;
- “Perhaps”: Colorado and Washington.
Republicans
- “Solids”: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma;
- “Likely”: Iowa, Florida, Missouri and Utah.
- “Perhaps”: North Carolina and Ohio.
In 6 states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), the scenario is unclear. These races must be decisive in deciding who will have a majority in the Senate.
governors
Of the 50 states, 48 elect governors for 4-year terms. Only New Hampshire and Vermont renew government every 2 years. Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana hold elections a year before the presidential election. New Jersey and Virginia vote the year after the president is chosen.
In the 2022 elections, 36 states will choose governors. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, South Carolina, Colorado, Connecticut, South Dakota, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska , Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
Another 3 US-controlled island territories – Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the US Virgin Islands – also elect governors.
O Political esteem that Democratic candidates are expected to win in 14 states, while Republicans are favorites in 17. Another 5 (Arizona, Wisconsin, Kansas, Oregon and Nevada) do not have a clear lead in the race.
WHAT IS AT STAKE
According to research by ABC News with the newspaper Washington Posta high inflationO right to abortion and the corrosion of democracy are the most important issues of this election for Americans.
If it loses the legislative majority, the Biden administration should have 2 difficult years until the 2024 presidential election. Former President Donald Trump is expected to announce his intention to run again on November 14th.
With dominance over the House, Republicans can block priority agendas of the current administration, such as the national law to regulate female reproductive rights guidelines.
Military and financial support for Ukraine has also been losing support among Republicans as the war against Russia extends into an 8th month, according to the report. Forbes.
If it also secures a majority in the Senate, the Republican opposition will be able to block Biden’s Supreme Court nominations. Today, the majority of the court has a conservative orientation (6 to 3).
Traditionally, midterm elections are unfavorable to the incumbent president. Since 1962, most US presidents have lost their own party representatives in the House and Senate in these elections.
Only Democrat Bill Clinton, in 1998, and Republican George W. Bush, in 2002, increased their seats in Congress.
Results
Early voting is regulated in some states and ended on Friday (4.nov). It was carried out by mail or in person at the polling station itself.
The vote count also differs by country. In the 2020 elections, the result was only announced on November 7, 4 days after the polls closed.
Considering the count of the primaries earlier this year, the website FiveThirtyEight estimated that the count should be completed in most parts of the country by 8 pm (Brasília time) on Wednesday (9.nov).
If the forecast is correct, North Carolina, Kentucky and Rhode Island should be the first to announce the result, later in the evening of November 8th. California, the largest state in terms of number of representatives (52), may take more than 2 days to complete the count.
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