Today the small state of Iowa will be, as it happens every four years, in the spotlight of American national politics with its caucuses, traditional electoral meetings for choosing a party's candidate for the presidential nomination in view of the 2024 elections. Since the 1970s, in fact, the Midwestern state, with just over 3 million inhabitants, has had the record of being the starting block of the primaries and therefore of the long race for Bianca, which will end with the November vote.
This year the focus is entirely on the Republican field – Joe Biden has no significant challenger for the Democratic nomination – and above all because the results of the caucuses, together with those of the primaries on January 23 in New Hampshire, will be able to indicate whether the new Donald Trump's candidacy for the White House is a givenas the Bulgarian poll percentages seem to suggest, or an alternative could emerge unexpectedly.
At the moment, most people's attention and bets are on Nikki Haley, Trump's former UN ambassador, who in recent weeks has been experiencing a great rise in the polls which has led her to overtake Ron DeSantis for the first time in the polls in Iowa, where she is now second with 20% – with Trump at 54% – ahead of governor of Florida at 13%. And it is above all in New Hampshire that the Republican party has made a leap forward, moving closer to The Donald.
It should be noted that that poll gave 12% to Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey who has since withdrawn from the race. Given the Republican's anti-Trump positions, and DeSantis' much less right-wing extremist positions, it is considered very likely that Haley will inherit some of Christie's voters.
Even if the former president's victory in Iowa, barring any sensational surprises, appears to have been announcedit is important for observers to see how big Trump's advantage will be over the latter, considering that a percentage below 10% would signal that the tycoon's new candidacy is not as safe as he continues to repeat.
Complicating the picture is the weather situation: Iowa is hit by an exceptional wave of bad weather, with snowstorms that have accumulated up to 30 centimeters in some locations. Both Haley and DeSantis had to cancel scheduled rallies.
The transport authorities have issued a bulletin advising against traveling by car due to bad weather, snow and icy roads. The snowstorm should be over for today, but polar temperatures are expected, down to -25 in the evening, when the caucuses will have to take place, the traditional meetings with which Iowa chooses the candidates instead of with actual votes like do the majority of other American states.
The rules of the Republicans
According to the rules of the Iowa Republican Party, in each district the voters will have to meet at 7 pm, listen to the speeches of the representatives of the various electoral campaigns, and then cast their vote on a ballot. Voters can also stay and watch the votes being counted. The complex conduct of the caucuses – which therefore requires a greater commitment than a simple voting operation – usually means that turnout tends to be low, and this year the weather conditions risk making it even more so.
Furthermore, it is interesting to note that, especially in the Republican field, the winners of the Iowa caucuses in recent years have not been the candidates for the White House: in 2016 Ted Cruz won, beating Trump, in 2012 Rick Santorum, when in the end candidate over Mitt Romney, in 2008 Mike Huckabee, while the nomination then went to John McCain.
Finally, although it is the first to vote, Iowa does not reflect the rest of the country, with a population that is whiter and older than any other state. For this reason, the Democrats have made a small revolution and this year they will not have caucuses in Iowa but will hold a primary by mail whose results will be released on Super Tuesday, March 5th.
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