Was it or was it not the projectile that analysts nickname as “the monster”? North Korea claims that the missile it fired last Thursday, which went higher and further than any other in its history, is a “new type” of rocket, the Hwasong-17 that it displayed at a military parade in October 2020. but never tried until now. The armed forces of South Korea and the United States, on the other hand, have questioned that statement, according to the South Korean news agency Yonhap, and point out that it could be more about another older intercontinental missile, the Hwasong-15, that Pyongyang it already shot in 2017. Other analysts have also joined the thesis of skepticism.
The intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM, for its acronym in English) reached a maximum height of 6,248.5 kilometers and fell in waters of the exclusive economic zone of Japan, 1,090 kilometers away from the point from which it was launched, the airport of Sunan, on the outskirts of the North Korean capital. It remained on the air for 67.5 minutes, according to Pyongyang. And North Korea celebrated its launch with a great informative display on state television: it was not only presented by the announcer Ri Chun-hee, in charge of announcing the big news of the regime. In addition, the network broadcast an eleven-minute montage in which the supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, is seen dressed in top gun or Gangnam Style supervise the launch and its preparations, and celebrate the apparent success with shouts of joy and fists in the air.
But analysts have uncovered details in the video that appear to contradict the official narrative. For example, the images show the launch on a clear day, while Thursday was cloudy in and around Pyongyang. The South Korean news agency Yonhap cites sources from the US and South Korean armed forces to indicate that the rocket seen taking to the skies only has two engine nozzles, while the Hwasong-17 seen in the 2020 parade I had four.
Yonhap notes that according to its military sources, the burn time of the rocket’s first-stage motor was similar to that of the Hwasong-15 test five years ago. “The analysis was based on data collected by allied intelligence assets, including a satellite equipped with thermal infrared sensors,” he explains.
This type of detail has made analysts think that the images may correspond to the failed launch of a missile the previous week, also from Sunan. The rocket fired on Thursday would, in that case, be a Hwasong-15. Its height and range, much greater than those recorded in 2017 (4,475 and 960 kilometers, respectively), would be explained by carrying a much lighter warhead than then.
“Multiple elements of visual evidence suggest that the North Korean version of events is equivocal at best and, at worst, possibly a complete fabrication of a Hwasong-17 missile test,” says the page specializing in information about North Korea NKNews, which cites some shadows and locations among the inconsistencies seen in the North Korean television video. The website clarifies that the contradictions do not necessarily imply that the missile that was tested on Thursday was a Hwasong-15. “It remains possible that North Korea did indeed launch a Hwasong-17 on March 24 but used old footage, perhaps from the failed March 16 attempt, in its coverage of the March 24 test. That might have been necessary if the cameras had failed to capture some aspects of this week’s launch that regime propagandists wanted included in official coverage,” he explains.
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Thursday’s launch was the first of a North Korean ICBM missile since November 2017, amid tensions with the US government over Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear weapons program. The launch has ended the moratorium on the firing of long-range projectiles that the Kim Jong Un regime imposed the following year, when he opened a negotiation process with Washington for the denuclearization of the peninsula.
But those talks came to a standstill after the resounding failure of the second summit between Kim and then-US President Donald Trump in Hanoi, Vietnam, in March 2019. In 2021, the North Korean leader gave orders to develop new weapons. state-of-the-art technology, a priority that was included in the new five-year plan (2021-2025).
Since the start of this year, North Korea has conducted a dozen missile tests — at least four of which it says were hypersonic missiles — at a rate not seen since the worst of 2017. In January , the regime had hinted that a new test of an ICBM was being considered.
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