If measures are not put in place, up to 20 million people yesThey will be forced to leave coastal areass of the Mediterranean and move due to sea level rise projected for 2100. Other infrastructure, such as transport networks or cultural heritage sites, will also be at high risk.
These are the conclusions of the report on climate and risks in coastal areas that the Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change (MedECCfor its acronym in English) publish this Monday. The text also warns that the rate of rise in the level of the Mediterranean is 2.8 millimeters (mm), double the average for the 20th century. By the end of the century, it is expected that the average ocean level could rise by one meter.
In the opinion of experts, this will increase the risk of storm-related flooding and will also cause permanent flooding of certain areas along the Mediterranean coasts. In a medium emissions scenario, the report warns that extreme sea level events, which occur once every hundred years, are likely to increase their frequency by at least 10% in 2050 and by 22% in 2100.
55 authors from 17 countries participated in this study and its coordinators included María Carmen Llasat, professor of Applied Physics at the University of Barcelona (UB). Throughout the study, the researchers have expressed their belief that it is “very likely” that lair temperatures in surface area in the Mediterranean region continue to increase more than the world average.
At the same time, they have considered it very possible that the frequency and intensity of warm extremes and evapotranspiration and that precipitation decreases according to the reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions achieved in the future. On the other hand, the authors have stressed that the increase in temperature will cause the adaptation limit of the area’s ecosystems to be reached when 3ºC is reached.
As they have warned, this will result in greater degradation of the environment and will make the management of water resources difficult. Furthermore, they have explained that to this we must add that the Mediterranean is the largest tourist destination in the world, which increases the pressure.
Marine heat waves
Likewise, they have stressed that it is expected that the marine heat waves become more common in the future. As stated in the report, these have increased carbon emissions and favor the appearance of non-native tropical species. In parallel, they have also caused episodes of mass deaths that have affected corals, sponges, mollusks, bryozoans and echinoderms.
Finally, they have stressed that the Mediterranean is one of the areas most contaminated by plastic waste in the world. Specifically, plastics represent up to 82% of visible litter, 95-100% of total floating marine litter and more than 50% of litter on the ocean floor. By 2040, scientists have estimated that plastic discharges into the sea will double if annual plastic production continues to increase at a rate of 4% and if waste management does not undergo radical improvement.
“Serious risks” for tourism, agriculture and fishing
In general terms, they have highlighted that climate change is anticipated to pose “serious risks” for important economic sectors such as summer beach tourism, agriculture, aquaculture and fishing in the region. Looking to the future, they predict that the risks of water scarcity will increase.
Furthermore, they have considered that current actions to solve environmental problems, adaptation to climate change and its mitigation are insufficient to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and that the risks of climate change will be exacerbated without transformative actions in all sectors. , systems and scales.
As they have warned, the effectiveness of conservation measures will depend largely on the success of climate change mitigation efforts. In this sense, the limits will become increasingly strict as global temperatures increase.
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