Turnaround in the Ukraine war? Ex-General Mick Ryan explains how Kiev’s victory against Russia is possible on the basis of five fundamentals.
Kyiv – While Russia announced many territorial gains at the beginning of the Ukraine war, Vladimir Putin’s invasion is currently faltering enormously. Ukraine is now even going on the offensive in some places, especially in the south of the country. Recently there have been repeated explosions on the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, although it has not been officially confirmed whether this was a targeted Ukrainian attack with Western weapons or Crimean attacks by Ukrainian partisans. Among other things, more than half of the jets of the Black Sea Fleet are said to have been paralyzed by an explosion.
Meanwhile, Mick Ryan, a former general in the Australian army who made a name for himself as an expert and analyst on wartime events during the months of the war between Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Ukraine, also sees progress on the part of Kiev. In a recent interview with US broadcaster CNN, Ryan stated that Ukraine had long recognized that it would be defeated in a direct war against Russia. That is why Zelenskyy’s troops are “indirectly” destroying the fighting power of the Putin army. Is it even possible for Ukraine to win over Russia? According to Ryan, there are a few key aspects to this.
Ex-general explains how Ukraine can win war – political support in focus
“One important caveat: Predicting the outcome of a war is impossible,” notes Ryan. However, he posted a thread on Twitter entitled “A Review of the Prospects of a Ukrainian Victory” in which he listed five points that would be central to a possible success. Point one: The political support of the West. The support from countries like Germany or the USA is clearly a “central element of the Ukrainian defense”. Therefore, while ground forces remain scarce, according to Ryan, maintaining support until the end of the war is a “primary task” for the government in Kyiv. So far this seems to be working, only recently the USA and Germany announced new arms deliveries.
Military expert Mick Ryan: Ukraine relies on economic aid
Point two on Ryan’s list: economic support. The Ukrainian economy suffered noticeably as a result of the invasion. A great example of this are the occupied ports and the dispute over grain exports. An agreement was reached here, but the route of the first Ukraine freighter that left the port was a mystery. It is not only possible for the country to maintain the government structures and to finance the expensive war through arms deliveries, but also through economic aid. This aid, too, urgently needs to go further from the West so that Kyiv is able to maintain the defense lines and push the Russians out of their territories, explains Ryan.
Key to Victory in the Ukraine War? According to ex-general, West must continue to increase arms deliveries
Ryan’s third point, related to the first two: military aid. “Modern wars, especially those being waged in Ukraine, are rapidly depleting ammunition, equipment and people,” Ryan wrote in his Twitter post. Ryan knows that Western countries sometimes provide their “most highly developed precision weapons” and that NATO is also involved in training programs for soldiers. However, it is important for a possible Ukraine success over Russia that this weapon aid is not only maintained, but even increased.
“Was essential”: Analyst Ryan attributes Zelenskyj to key role in Ukraine war
Since the beginning of the war, President Volodymyr Zelensky has been the face of the resistance in Ukraine. In his fourth aspect, expert Ryan also ascribes an important role to him for the further course of the war. “A fourth key to Ukraine’s success is leadership,” Ryan said. Selenskyj not only united his people in the resistance, he had also developed a major global influence. “This was essential for humanitarian, diplomatic and military assistance,” Ryan continues to claim in the Twitter thread. In general, the Ukrainian leadership has developed a “clever and sophisticated campaign against Russia” that absolutely must be continued.
Retired General Mick Ryan: “Ultimately, Ukraine must win on the battlefield”
Ryan’s fifth and final point is also a bit of bringing together all of the above aspects: “Ultimately, Ukraine must win on the battlefield,” said General a. D. If the other four basics he listed are in place, one will “substantiate the success in hand-to-hand combat, which is essential for defeating the Russians.” Ukrainians have long since understood that this war is a struggle for existence. Retaking their Russian-occupied lands is essential to victory.
In addition, Ryan gives a small outlook on how it could go on. Until the winter, Ukraine will “likely continue” attacks in the south to retake areas. However, “offensive campaigns are much more difficult than defensive ones. And there is no guarantee of success,” explains the analyst. In the last six months, however, it has been impressively demonstrated that the country has “courage, intelligence, influence, and above all heart”.
Meanwhile, the belief that Ukraine can turn the tide of war is growing, and not only among Mick Ryan. Two other experts are already thinking about Vladimir Putin’s defeat. But what happens to the Kremlin chief if the invasion goes against him? Allegedly, Putin already has an exile plan. (han)
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