WVladimir Putin is presenting his war against Ukraine as a defensive battle against NATO. This is wrong, because the alliance never intended to harm Russia. But it is true that many Western countries are helping Ukraine.
It remains to be seen whether the help will actually help. According to Clausewitz, victory and defeat depend on two factors: the “size of the available resources” and the “strength of willpower”. If you look at the means, Ukraine would have to win with the help of NATO. Their countries had an economic output of 37 trillion euros in 2022, Russia had two trillion. Although both sides have the same number of battle tanks, NATO has five times as many combat aircraft and many more armored vehicles, according to the SIPRI institute.
It can also be done without the money from America
The second factor, “strength of willpower,” also speaks in favor of Ukraine. A Gallup poll in the fall found that 60 percent of Ukrainians want to see the war through until victory. 91 percent understand this to mean the expulsion of the occupiers from the entire occupied territory. Despite all the sacrifices made over the past year, this determination has hardly weakened. Ukraine held its positions. According to British information, it destroyed one in five Russian ships on the Black Sea and reopened its grain export route.
On the other hand, it has not been possible to push back the Russians, and there is a clear reason for this: the will of the Ukrainians is strong, but that of some partners is weak. The following figure shows how weak it is: NATO has almost 21,000 combat aircraft, but it has not yet sent a single one to Ukraine. And according to figures from the Kiel Institute for Economic Research, newly promised aid from the West fell by 90 percent between 2022 and 2023.
One of the weakest links in the chain is the USA. Donald Trump's Republicans are blocking aid to Ukraine, and according to Gallup, the proportion of Americans for whom the current aid is too much has risen from 25 to 41 percent since 2022. If America falters, Germany also falters, and if these two falter, Poland and the British cannot stand either. Despondency has recently spread in the West.
But reality is better than perception. In Germany, for example, the figures from the “Politbarometer” show growing support for more military aid for Ukraine. And as far as money is concerned: Washington is important, but today the Europeans' cumulative aid to Ukraine, at 121 billion euros, is almost twice as high as that of the Americans.
So Ukraine doesn't have to go under if the Republicans continue to block. As long as the American nuclear guarantee is in place under President Joe Biden, Europe alone is rich enough to ensure that the Ukrainians' willpower is matched by the necessary resources. It just has to want to. To do this, Chancellor Olaf Scholz would have to step out of Biden's shadow. He would have to take the initiative, perhaps together with Donald Tusk and Emmanuel Macron, so that the EU increases its aid so that Ukraine can survive without America for the time being.
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