The US, Japan and Great Britain are calling on their citizens to leave the country immediately. Biden calls allies and today he will hear Putin. Dragons: severe sanctions if the Russians invade
ROME – WASHINGTON. Russia could attack Ukraine at any moment, without waiting for the end of the Beijing Olympic Games. It is Jake Sullivan, US National Security Advisor, who raised the alarm in the early afternoon in Washington. The rumor about Putin’s possible moves has been going on since Thursday evening President Joe Biden from the NBC had launched a direct appeal to the Americans in Ukraine: “Leave the country immediately, things can precipitate quickly”. The head of the White House had reiterated that no US military would go to recover the Americans stranded in the country at war: no encore of Kabul.
Shortly thereafter Biden was in the Situation Room, the command bridge in the basement of the White House, where he and Sullivan had examined the latest intelligence gathered. And intelligence had confirmed that Putin now has the device ready to launch a “massive attack”. In the last few hours, commercial satellites and sources on the ground have shown an increase in men and equipment in Belarus but especially along the eastern border of Ukraine and in the Crimea. Here, not far from the capital, satellites detected the presence of assault helicopters and tents for field hospitals for the first time.
In short, the week that seemed to fuel hopes for peace ends with the fear of an imminent conflict. With a but: today Putin and Biden should hear each other by phone. The hypothesis of a new contact between the two yesterday was confirmed by Russian agencies and Sullivan. In the last two days, Moscow has first dampened Macron’s negotiating enthusiasm, then rejected British efforts, and finally made the condition – inadmissible for Kiev – that Ukraine dialogue with pro-Russian Donbass separatists. Yesterday it was the Russian Foreign Ministry’s turn to say that the American and NATO response to the Russian security proposals was “disrespectful”. Sergey Lavrov would have demanded an ad hoc response from every single country in the extreme attempt to underline divisions on the Western front.
In Kiev, Washington’s alarmed tones are greeted with skepticism, but the call to the Americans to leave the country “quickly” has generated a ripple effect among the allies. Dutch, British, Norwegians, Lithuanians, Japanese Israelis are with suitcases in hand, and embassies evacuate unnecessary personnel. Sullivan also dictated the timing of the escape: “within 48 hours you have to leave.”
The reason lies not only in the risk of a Russian attack, but also in the modalities of the military action imagined in Washington, or a blitz with missiles and planes on strategic places: once the communication, digital and transport routes have been cut, it would be impossible. get out of the quagmire. Sullivan referred among the Russian options to a “quick assault on Kiev”, while stressing that with over 100,000 men massed at the borders and massive military means, Moscow can act in different ways.
The gravity of the situation yesterday prompted Biden to hear from the main European allies, including Prime Minister Mario Draghi and NATO leaders in Brussels. In the conference call that lasted one hour and twenty minutes, the allies reaffirmed their “total cohesion” on the strategy to be followed and underlined “the growing concern” for a possible invasion. At this point, deterrence – explain diplomatic circles – is pushed to the maximum precisely to avoid putting Putin in a position to act. It is no coincidence that Draghi, in an official note from Palazzo Chigi, underlined “the opportunity for serious sanctions in the event of aggression against the territorial integrity of Ukraine”. For Rome, unusual tones towards Moscow, and in line with those of the American ally.
It is not yet clear whether war will break out, certainly everyone is preparing to fight it. After the B52s arrived at the Fetesti base in Romania, yesterday it was the turn of the F16 squadrons. Defense sources told Reuters that the United States “is about to send another 3,000 troops to Poland.” They are those of the 82nd Airborne Division stationed in North Carolina. The troops will arrive next week and will join the more than eight thousand already on alert. Washington repeats that they are “military placements” in defense of the allies and that there is no hypothesis that the soldiers will enter Ukraine. Sullivan denied having information of a decision already taken by the Kremlin and communicated to the Russian generals to start the attack, as suggested by some sources cited by the PBS. “We do not have this intelligence information nor have we received any from the allies,” explained Biden’s adviser, highlighting that the ball is in Putin’s field and that it is up to him to decide how to play it.
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