On Saturday ten years have passed since Russia organized a “referendum” on Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, after which it annexed Crimea. Several bases of the Russian Black Sea Fleet are located on the peninsula, which are important to Russia both militarily and symbolically.
“They are already from Tsarist Russia. When the Soviet Union broke up, it was important for Russia that it could maintain its base there even though Crimea was transferred to Ukraine,” says the head teacher of naval warfare at the National Defense Academy, commander Anssi Munkki in HS's Ukraine studio.
If Ukraine ever recaptures Crimea, the situation could be called, according to Munki, not only mentally humiliating and shameful for Russia, but also militarily disastrous.
“The infrastructure that has been built in Crimea – even though it has been damaged during this war – will take years if not decades to build. There is no such thing anywhere else in the Black Sea region of Russia.”
Commander Anssi Munkki, the head teacher of naval warfare at the National Defense University.
in Ukraine does not have a navy, but it has managed to destroy a considerable part – according to Munk, an estimated 20–30 percent – of the Russian Black Sea fleet.
In particular, Ukraine has targeted landing craft. They are used for personnel transport and could be used to support troops if Ukraine were to succeed in striking the Kerch Strait bridge connecting Crimea and Russia in such a way that traffic on it would be closed permanently or for a long time.
Perhaps the most famous Ukrainian attack on the Russian fleet was made right in the spring of 2022, when Ukraine sank the flagship Moskva. Ukraine hit it with the Neptune missile, but since then, as Russia moved its ships to positions outside the missile range, Ukraine has resorted to other weapon systems.
“Ukraine has started to develop alternative means of influence, and then drones have been found as a solution. At regular intervals, it has been possible to strike very deeply at the ships in the Russian bases”, describes Munkki.
March 10th a satellite image taken of the port of Sevastopol shows what Munk describes as “abnormal” anti-drone structures.
“These are by no means ordinary structures for ports. One could assume, since Ukraine has recently struck drone ships traveling on the surface, that these are booms intended to prevent drones from entering port basins.”
Planet Labs satellite image of Sevastopol. In the upper corner of the picture you can see booms used to fight drones. In the harbor you can also see a considerable number of ships undergoing maintenance.
Planet Labs satellite image of the port of Novorossiysk, where a large number of Russian Navy ships have been spotted in recent weeks.
One advantage of destroying the fleet is information influence and showing that Russia is not protected on the battlefield. Militarily, Ukraine has received the spent power of the Russian navy. Ultimately, the goal would be for Ukraine to once again be able to use its sea areas for its own purposes, such as for export.
“Unfortunately, we have not seen this yet. Ukraine's Black Sea ports are still out of the game.”
Tuesday Ukraine attacked several targets in Russia with drones. In addition to that, the Russian volunteer forces, the Legion of Free Russia and the Legion of Siberia, once again invaded Russia from Ukraine.
“As individual events, these are not very significant militarily, but yes, this was a bad day for Russia,” says HS's Ukraine expert and fact-checker John Helin.
Although the attacks have caused damage to Russia's oil infrastructure, for example, the political significance of the attacks is greater.
“This is clearly aimed at influencing the elections next weekend. Let's try to get rid of the president Vladimir Putin authority.”
Mixed with drone attacks and the penetration of Russian volunteer forces across the border into Russia, voters are reminded of the war and that Ukraine is able to influence within Russia and Putin is unable to protect his people.
According to Helin, the Russian volunteers are mainly the same group as the troops that briefly occupied the villages in Belgorod in the spring of last year. This time, the Russian Volunteer Army, which is a more clearly far-right group, has been given less attention in the communication.
“This is a clear political choice.”
The situation in Ukraine at the front has been gloomy in recent weeks and months. According to Helin, Ukraine has tried to attack Russia in times when the situation at the front has been weak in order to shift attention to more positive things for Ukraine.
“In this case, there may be an element of communication. I would think that this week's events are more about the elections.”
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