“It’s like in 2014, even then the Russians wanted more, not just a part of Donbass, but also Odessa and Kharkiv, they wanted to isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea and they couldn’t.”. Eight years later they could be forced to stop again, contenting themselves with a minimal objective, the capture of Mariupol, to link Crimea to the Donbass. Qualified sources in Kiev thus comment with Adnkronos on the change of strategy given by the military leaders of Moscow to their forces on the ground, a strategy that now considers the Donbass as the “main objective” of the ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine launched on February 24 last.
“The Russians must take Mariupol, who continues to resist strenuously, to link Crimea to the Donbass, that is the least result – the sources explain – They could claim the possible encirclement of Ukrainian forces as a success in the demilitarization of the country. All just like in 2014“And as then they would also like to take Odessa, but” with the forces they have in place for now they can’t do it: it could take 5-6 months to strengthen the presence of Russian forces in a consistent way “, underline the sources, who do not they are completely convinced of the change of strategy.
On the one hand, what was said two days ago by the General Staff of Moscow “seems an admission of weakness, because in fact the Russians are struggling, they have great difficulties, especially at the logistical level, they have problems with the motivation of the troops”. At the same time, according to the sources, “they will leave no stone unturned” to try to expand their achievements as much as possible. And on May 9 – the date indicated as a possible deadline for a Russian withdrawal to allow Vladimir Putin to ‘save face’ and ‘celebrate’ victory in Ukraine at the Moscow parade – in Kiev “they hope so, but they have no illusions”.
In this phase, however, in which they feel “more bold”, the Ukrainians are in any case less and less willing to cede portions of territory to the Russians and want to negotiate from a position of greater strength: if on the question of neutrality they continue to send signals of openness , on the recognition of Crimea and Donbass have stiffened, while on the issue of security guarantees they continue to not trust Moscow, mindful of what happened with the 1994 Budapest memorandum, with which Kiev agreed to send its nuclear warheads, in exchange for guarantees from Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom, and subsequently also from China and France, for its security, independence and territorial integrity. Guarantees that have evidently not proved sufficient.
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