Ukraine’s counteroffensive obtains results in the war against Russia, Kiev advances south after having ‘pierced’ the first Russian defense line. Victory, however, is not a goal within reach.
The progress was described as “very encouraging” by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev. Washington will continue to support Ukraine, which will also receive Abrams tanks in the coming weeks. What effect will all this have on the counteroffensive? Will progress increase anytime soon? Among the analyses, that of Richard Barrons, a former general of the British armed forces, stands out. “The current counter-offensive will not throw Russia out, which nobody expects. It will not halve land occupation before winter, which may be one of the more optimistic goals. But he showed that Russia can be defeated. Not in 2023, but in 2024 or 2025“, writes Barrons in the Financial Times. For this reason, he says, Western countries keep repeating that they will support Kiev “as long as necessary”.
The progress of the last few weeks has allowed the Ukrainian armed forces to advance 8 miles south: “55 more remain, through 3 defense lines” which are added to the one just passed. “North and south of Bakhmut – in the east of the country – progress is 5-10 miles.” In this framework, no radical breakthroughs can be expected. Kiev must act with patience and foresight, maintaining pressure on Russian forces during the winter, optimizing resources and focusing on ‘hit and run’ operations when necessary.
Ukraine will have to wait until the summer of 2024 to have a sufficiently powerful air force at its disposal and effective tools for demining the fields. This means that the war will continue throughout the next year. The crucial passage, according to Barrons, is linked to one consideration: “We must accept that this war passes through the capacity of the Western defense industry and of Ukraine. The ammunition guaranteed by the new production lines will arrive en masse in mid-2024, this it will be a breakthrough for Kiev’s offensive capabilities, which will be ready for ‘all in’ in 2025.
“Ukraine must win on the battlefield to survive as a state. This victory is not only vital for NATO’s security and its continued relationship with Russia, but will also influence China’s intention to embark on China’s military adventures The current counteroffensive proves that Putin’s occupation can be defeated. It will take longer and cost more than we hoped, but hope is not enough. The West must now engage in the toughest campaign yet or it will doom the Ukraine to fight without the prospect of winning”.
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