Confcommercio: inflation estimated at 5.6% per year is also rampant outside the energy sector
Tensions in Ukraine, dear energy, Covid And inflation sky high: a February the GDP has consolidated the trend to slowdown emerged in the previous months, with a 1.0% reduction conjunctural. This is highlighted by the short-term estimates of Confcommercio. In the annual comparison, growth should amount to 4.2%, a sharp decline, therefore, compared to the previous months.
“THE data of the first two months, the press release reads, make the possibility of a large one more and more concrete downward revision of growth for 2022with respect to the objectives that in the official documents are set at 4.7%. In the hypothesis of a negative first quarter, it is necessary, in fact, that the remaining nine months of the year be characterized by a vigorous recovery, a result that can only be achieved by fully exploiting the resources of the Pnrr“.
“The economic situation, he stresses Confcommercio, becomes more complex and uncertain. There are downward revisions, albeit of moderate magnitude, in the rate of change of Italian GDP for 2022whose target can hardly be placed around the 4.5%. In recent days, the problems of a Russian-Ukrainian conflict have been added to the problems already known, and still not resolved, deriving from the tensions on raw material prices, the supply difficulties in some supply chains and the uncertainty about the pandemic evolution. . Taken as a whole, this situation risks prolonging and amplifying tensions on consumer prices. Not seeing one soon solution to this problem, fears of sudden changes in monetary policy are growing. Over time, attempts at reassurance in this regard seem to lose effectiveness. ”
To production uncertainties, he concludes Confcommercio“are associated with fears of the effects on consumption deriving from the recovery in inflation. In February, the annual change in consumer prices should reach the 5.6%. As feared for some months, the persisting tensions on international markets and supply chains are beginning to produce increases also in sectors other than energy “.
TO January the consumption indicator Confcommercio (ICC) reports an increase, on an annual basis, of 8.5%, slowing down on December. The comparison, we read in the conjuncture, is clearly influenced by the different conditions in which they operated businesses in 2021 and 2022 and this essentially affected the demand for services which showed a variation of 33.6%. The increase in demand for goods as a whole is decidedly more contained (+ 2.2%).
In seasonally adjusted terms, he explains Confcommerciothe worsening of the health situation led, in the first month of the year, to a sharp downsizing of demand, with a decrease in December of the 4.5% a value that drops to -13.1% for services. In comparison with January 2020, last month not affected by COVID-19, the demand calculated in the ICC metric is still 11.7% lower. For services, the decline exceeds 22%.
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