Dhe first impression counts. The Chancellor may have been pursuing the goal of paving the way for Vladimir Putin to face-saving de-escalation. But Olaf Scholz underestimated the devastating effect of his embassy in the United States.
With his initially hesitant, then cryptic way of stating the obvious, namely that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would not go into operation in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the chancellor more than irritated Germany’s most important ally. This possibility of sanctions, which is now “on the table” for the chancellor, is ultimately the basis of the agreement between Joe Biden and Angela Merkel last summer. He had supported it when he was Vice-Chancellor.
It should have been clear to Scholz that a different tone in German Russia policy, even if it were just a different nuance, would trigger alarm in the American capital and potentially be perceived as a change of course. Especially since further irritating signals were sent on the subject of arms deliveries. The new chancellor is not yet known in Washington, apart from a small circle that deals with international financial policy. However, knowing that he comes from the same party as Gerhard Schröder is not an advantage for him.
Agreement between Blinken and Baerbock
A few days before the Social Democrats’ inaugural visit to the White House, the initial agreement between Foreign Ministers Blinken and Baerbock has been almost forgotten. The American public is once again talking about special German-Russian relations and about the fact that Berlin is dividing the West.
From the point of view of some foreign policymakers in Washington, the worst fears are coming true. After Biden took office, the new administration made it clear that it wanted to repair the damaged transatlantic alliance. In particular, Germany, which had to serve as a whipping boy in the Trump era, was accommodated. There was also recognition that Merkel had managed to hold the Western alliance together to some extent when its leadership failed.
Biden not only revised Trump’s decision to reduce American troops in Germany, which was intended as a punitive action. He was also willing to refrain from new sanctions against the Nord Stream project – although he considers it a geopolitical mistake and faced hostility in Congress for his weighing decision. The President wanted to avoid a break with Germany.
Merkel was seen as an anchor of stability
The prerequisite for the concession was that Berlin had to accept its leadership role and ensure that Moscow did not continue to bully Kiev. Merkel, the anchor of stability in Europe, was believed to be responsible for this. As soon as she’s gone, you think Germany is back on a special path.
The American view that Merkel took an even harder stance on Putin and that Germany is now as it were equidistant between East and West distorts reality. After all, the former Chancellor also missed several opportunities to pull the plug on Nord Stream 2.
There aren’t many people who know Germany in Washington anymore, where they deal with China in an almost obsessive way. The few that still exist point out that Scholz is carrying around the ballast of a social-democratic Ostpolitik that has fallen out of time. However, they do not hide the fact that it was Merkel who actually increased dependence on Russia in terms of energy policy with her early nuclear phase-out.
German diplomats have been trying for weeks to explain Berlin’s position to the American public and to calm things down. When dealing with the government and Congress, one feels compelled to emphasize the Federal Republic’s loyalty to the alliance. Should there be an invasion of Ukraine, Germany will support strict sanctions against Moscow. It’s called diplomatic damage control.
That’s exactly what it will be about when Scholz appears in Washington early next week. The western alliance should actually be renewed after the disruptive years under Trump. In fact, Moscow’s threats have exposed deep cracks in NATO. Putin can take credit for that. Whether his calculation works out in the end also depends on whether Biden and Scholz manage to do more than just improve the facade of their alliance. Keep your head down and keep your distance, the President will make it clear to the Chancellor that Germany will not be able to do that.
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