There Russia “has consumed enormous amounts of human resourcesarmaments and materials” during the war in Ukraine and it will likely exhaust its offensive potential by the end of spring. The prediction comes from the head of Ukrainian military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov, made in an interview with USA Today, in which he argues that neither the economy nor the national military industrial complex will be able to help Russia, which will lack the resources to continue war against Ukraine if it “fails in its objectives this spring”.
Budanov then said that “a decisive battle” will take place in the spring and predicted that “this battle will be the last one before the war ends.”
Fighting continues in Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine. Russian troops are trying, but failing, to encircle the city with Moscow losing up to “500 soldiers a day” in its offensive, according to Kiev’s army. “The losses of the Russians amount to 500 killed and wounded every day“, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag, adding that Moscow considers its military “cannon fodder”.
The Kiev figures cannot be independently verified, but the Russian human rights organization “Russians Behind Bars” recently reported that of the 50,000 mercenaries Wagner recruited in prisons, only 10,000 are still at the front. The rest are dead, wounded, captured or have deserted.
Kiev continues to maintain control of a key road to get in and out of Bakhmut. “The Ukrainian Armed Forces hold the Bakhmut-Kostiantynivka highway, it is quite stable – said Volodymyr Nazarenko, deputy commander of the National Guard, referring to the artery considered essential for the arrival of supplies – The situation around Bakhmut and its suburbs it’s very similar to hell, like on the whole eastern front”.
Nazarenko also said that there were no “tactical changes” on the Ukrainian side: “The enemy is looking for weak points, trying to distract our forces by fighting, pushing our reserves away, trying to combine different methods and tactics. But not he succeeds,” he said.
The military then rejected rumors of a possible Ukrainian withdrawal from the city. “There is no withdrawal. On the contrary, some new reserves are arriving as reinforcements to hold the defence. The entire combat area is under chaotic bombardment, but there is a connection to the city, there are routes that have been cut”. “In this hell, every day seems like an eternity. It’s really hard to count how many months Bakhmut has resisted. Yet they fail to take the city,” concluded Nazarenko.
The battle for Bakhmut is the bloodiest since the Russian invasion began, with Moscow’s forces trying to conquer it since May 2022 and failing. The Wagner mercenary unit is particularly active in the area. Its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, considered close to the Kremlin, has previously recruited men from Russian prisons. Among these prisoners in particular, the casualties are extremely high. According to Reznikov, Bakhmut is “a symbolic place for Russians”. However, his fall would mean nothing for the further course of fighting in the Donbass region, he told the newspaper.
KHERSON
Three people, including two children, were killed in a Russian raid on Kherson in southern Ukraine. The head of the Ukrainian presidential staff, Andriy Yermak, announced in a telegram post, according to which “the village of Poniativka was shelled with mortars: a residential building was hit and three people died”.
“RUSSIANS WITHOUT AMMUNITION, HAND-TO-HAND FIGHTING WITH SHOVELS”
“Close fighting” is increasing in Ukraine due to the shortage of ammunition available to Moscow’s forces, the British Defense Ministry announced in its usual briefing on the progress of the war. Mobilized Russian reservists are ordered to assault Ukrainian positions “armed only with rifles and shovels”. Possibly dated Mpl-50 infantry shovels, designed based on a model not too different from the one introduced to the Russian forces in 1869. Their use highlights the “brutal, low-tech nature of the fighting” that characterized much of the war . In recent days, the head of Wagner, Evgheny Prigozhin, had denounced that his mercenaries, engaged in particular in Bakhmut, had no ammunition.
TWO PILOTS FROM KIEV IN THE USA TO TEST THE F-16
Two Ukrainian pilots are in Arizona to determine how long it might take to train them to fly attack aircraft, including F-16 fighters. This was announced by American sources cited by CNN. The Ukrainians’ skills are being tested on simulators at a US military base in Tucson, officials said, and they could soon be joined by more fellow pilots. Kiev has repeatedly called for the allied countries to be hunted down, which have not yet responded. US administration officials stressed that this was not a training program and said the Ukrainians would not fly any aircraft during their stay in the United States. The goal is only to improve pilot skills and assess how long a proper training program might take.
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