The third year of war begins in February, and the fate of Ukraine is in hands other than its own.
Started year marks the end of the second year of full-scale war for Ukraine and the beginning of the third, as there is not the slightest sign of peace in Ukraine. There are no elections in Ukraine, but the elections in other countries are more important to Ukraine.
Here are some outlooks for the Ukrainian New Year.
The new conscription law enters into force
Ukrainian On Christmas Day, the Verkhovna Rada received the government's proposal for a new conscription law. President to Volodymyr Zelensky according to the law, an attempt is made to respond to the armed forces' request for 450,000–500,000 new soldiers to be assigned to military service.
The bill has been in committee consideration. The Kyiv Independent newspaper reported on Wednesday that the draft law is still being worked on because, according to Ukraine's human rights ombudsman, it would have been unconstitutional.
Passage would mean putting forward a new motion that could divide citizens' opinions. Soldiers and their families probably feel that they have given their all for the motherland and expect the same from others.
Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov according to the online newspaper, there are currently 800,000 soldiers in the service of the armed forces Politico. The strength of the frontline forces has not been stated, but it is in any case less than half of the total strength. More alarming is the average age of the soldiers, which is of The Wall Street Journal reached the age of 43.
According to the original bill, the conscription age limit would drop to 25 from the current 27. A summons letter or a request to register would also be sent to the approximately 650,000 conscripts who left the country legally or illegally during the ongoing Russian invasion. All reservists between the ages of 18 and 25 would be assigned three months of compulsory training. New punishments would be imposed on the Cone Guards.
Except for a short break in the winter of 2013-2014, there has been conscription in Ukraine all the time, since Soviet times. The armed forces have favored volunteerism and the use of contract soldiers since the beginning of the war in Eastern Ukraine, i.e. since 2014. As the large-scale war has dragged on, the situation has changed: brute force is needed at the front.
The presidential election is cancelled
in Ukraine should organize the first round of the next presidential election on the last day of next March, according to the schedule. However, the parliament has continued martial law for three months at a time since February 2022. According to the constitution, no elections are held during martial law, and the parliament will certainly continue martial law next February.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyi sent video greetings to citizens on New Year's Eve from Avdijivka, the hottest section of the front.
The majority of MPs and voters support postponing the elections. Disagreements in the country's leadership have become public from time to time, but after Russia's New Year's missile strikes, the sounds of gravel are hardly heard.
The presidential elections in March may still be the turning point of the war, namely the Russian presidential elections. They win in the first round Vladimir Putin, which is expected to organize a new partial motion launch after the elections. Ukraine needs more soldiers to line up to keep its position, victories also need the support of partners.
Will even the television be saved?
TV programs after all, they are among the things that the president, parliament and government can decide on, even in wartime, without asking others.
By decision of the government, on February 24, 2022, Ukraine started a television news ensemble, or “telemarathon” called Unified news. In it, all the main television channels broadcast the same news program around the clock, the media groups responsible for the production take turns in six-hour segments.
The popularity of the telethon was huge at the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, because the thirst for information was enough: where is the bombing, where is the attack, where to go, what to do, where is the president and what is he saying? The decision-makers' fear of Russia's information war was great, and not without reason.
At the latest over the past year, the public has had enough of the uniform truth. TV channels have lost two thirds of their audience. Media giants are faltering, regional channels and local newspapers are in the grip of a bankruptcy wave.
“The ongoing attempt to create a virtual North Korea has led to the audience moving to Telegram, Youtube and Tiktok,” Dnipro-TV project manager Natalya Vlasova seal Strana– website.
The decision-makers have not yet figured out what to do. One option is to return to the pre-invasion mode of production, albeit flavored with some kind of military censorship agency.
The first F-16 fighters are expected
Netherlands, Denmark and Norway have promised Ukraine a total of dozens of F-16 fighters, and the training of Ukrainian pilots has apparently already started at least in Romania and Denmark. In addition, Belgium has promised to deliver the same fighters to Ukraine next year.
Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredrikssen boarded an F-16 fighter j
et at Skrydstrup Air Base in Denmark in August.
The arrival of the first fighters “these days” has been expected for some time. However, a realistic assessment seemed to have been heard already in October from the US Defense Minister From Lloyd Austinwho speculated that the first US-made fighters would arrive in Ukraine “possibly by spring 2024”.
The much-talked-about delivery of fighter jets to Ukraine is not just shield-polishing for the Western allies, as the planes will allow Ukraine to destroy Russian bombers before they fire their missiles at Ukraine. For example, last Friday, a large part of the missiles fired at Ukrainian towns were launched from Russian Tu-95 bombers, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
The year of airplanes
President Zelenskyi said in December that Ukraine plans to manufacture one million drones for the armed forces this year. Minister of Strategic Industry Oleksandr Kamyshin specified later, that the goal only applies to small reconnaissance and explosive aircraft that will mainly be used on the front lines.
According to Kamyšin, Ukraine is simultaneously manufacturing tens of thousands of long-range explosive drones with which it can continue its strikes deep into Russia's rear. Therefore, the Russians have to prepare for attacks similar to the one Ukraine made on New Year's Eve in the city of Belgorod in Western Russia.
According to the Russian authorities, at least 20 residents of the city were killed and 111 injured in the attack. Putin vowed revenge, so the possibility of an expansion of the war is obvious. Russia has already increased its own drone production in the past.
A decisive battle in the United States
Ukrainian crucial to survival is Washington's support, and that is at stake in the US presidential election on November 5. The election has already been seen before the start of the primaries of the sitting president Joe Biden and aspiring to return to the White House Donald Trump's as a duel.
Even if both competing partners disappeared from the political field within a year, the aid to Ukraine would not have been resolved. In the United States, there are many supporters of the isolationist policy across the party line. Even if they are not in the majority, they can turn Ukraine into a pawn of their own internal politics, as has already happened.
European support would hardly compensate for the withdrawal of the United States, even if the EU countries could settle their mutual disputes and leave leaders like Viktor Orban to fend for themselves.
#Ukraine #Ukraine #face
