Tusk faces its first test in Poland with the regional and local elections

The liberal conservative Donald Tusk returned to the head of the Polish Government in December with 100 promises for the first 100 days. When that deadline expired two weeks ago, the local media estimated that he had fulfilled 12 commitments and another 10, partially, while numerous episodes of political upheaval have occurred. This Sunday his management undergoes a first examination with the regional, provincial and local elections. The liberal coalition—which includes conservative forces and a progressive minority—arrives at the election with the first fissures over issues such as abortion or contributions to social security and without a unitary candidacy. The surveys do not reflect the surprise and dominance desired by Tusk's Civic Platform (PO), despite the crisis that the ultra-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) is going through, which has not recovered from the defeat of the autumn.

The legislative election campaign was developed in epic terms as a decisive battle for the future of the country, a battle between civilizations: liberal democracy, the rule of law and the EU, against an illiberal system far from the values ​​of the West and Brussels. Faced with that display of emotions and resources, which boosted a record turnout of more than 74%, the Polish media describes the campaign leading up to these macro-elections, in which 190,000 candidates are running for regional, provincial and municipal assemblies, as bland. and boring. The maximum participation recorded in these elections was in 2018, with 54.9%. For political formations they are, however, crucial: despite their limited powers in a very centralized system, these administrations are key in the channeling of European funds and represent an important source of access to money and jobs for the parties.

The prestigious Polish sociologist Jaroslaw Flis explains by video call three days before the elections: “At first it seemed that this could be a sequel [de las elecciones de octubre] in which one side could show its dominance. “Now PiS is very weak, but not as weak as its opponents might dream.” Both Tusk's Civic Platform and Jaroslaw Kaczynski's PiS are around 30% in aggregate voting intention nationally, and according to the survey, one or the other appears in the lead. In October, PiS added 35.38% compared to PO's 30.7%, but did not have a majority to govern.

The elections expert from the Jagiellonian University in Krakow continues: “I don't have a clear final picture, although some things are foreseeable, such as that there will not be a big victory for PiS, which may lose two or three regions.” “Normally, parties think of these elections as part of the national game, but this time it is not so visible; There are many conflicts at the national level,” says Flis.

In its first steps to restore the rule of law and regain control of entities such as the public media or the Prosecutor's Office, the Tusk Government has used some methods of dubious legality and has challenged the blockade that the president, Andrzej Duda, is trying to impose. , and the Constitutional Court, both favorable to PiS, questioning its legitimacy. These political and institutional clashes have left episodes such as the occupation of public organizations by PiS politicians and scenes such as the arrest of two former Ministers of Law and Justice who took refuge in the presidential palace while the president was absent.

As University of Sussex political scientist Aleks Szcerbiak, an expert on Poland, points out, “many supporters of the Government not only don't care that it has taken shortcuts to restore the rule of law, but are satisfied.” In his opinion, the Executive is more vulnerable in socioeconomic issues such as health, infrastructure, taxes… “And on these issues, people are still giving it the benefit of the doubt,” he adds in a video call. In the background, threats such as the war in Ukraine and inflation remain.

Coalition tensions

The coalition arrives divided around the great electoral promise that promoted the decisive vote of women: the legalization of abortion until the 12th week. Third Way, formed by two center-right parties, has pushed the issue on the parliamentary agenda until after these elections. Other issues that are straining the unity of the partners are a bill that involves the distribution of positions in the Administration and contributions to social security for health care. Third Way wants to lower those of entrepreneurs, making them equal – to the anger of the New Left (Nowa Lewica) – to those of minimum wage workers.

The Executive has not yet managed to resolve the protests of farmers and transporters over competition from Ukraine, but it has been possible to point out as a great victory the unlocking of European funds – some 137,000 million euros – that Brussels had suspended pending reforms in the judicial system. Szcerbiak emphasizes that the European Commission “has clearly applied a double standard”, because where the previous Government required legislation, now promises of reforms have been enough. “The problem for PiS is that no one cares” about this double standard, he reflects.

The University of Sussex expert believes that PiS, “in crisis since the elections,” has shown that “it was not prepared to go over to the opposition.” Of the 16 Polish regions (voivodeships), the party controls eight since the 2018 elections, in rural areas in the east and south of the country. The projections for Sunday assure him one, his fiefdom of Podkarpackie (Subcarpathia) in the southeast. Michal Konowksi, a political scientist at the University of Lodz, explains that “if things go badly, he keeps his stronghold, and if things go well, he can keep up to five.”

“The difference is that of a deputy in some cases. But except for Confederation [de extrema derecha], has no possible coalition partners and although it will surely win in number of votes, they will not have a majority,” says the expert in perfect Spanish. The big bet of the party that governed the country for eight years is the more than 300 provinces: “PiS has invested a lot to occupy that power.”

In the western regions and big cities, PiS has no chance of winning. Some candidates even hide the party logo on their election posters. Konowksi does not foresee great emotions in the results – for which we will have to wait at least until Monday – although the capital can bring surprises. The Warsaw mayoral elections are usually a test to test presidential candidates. PiS has introduced a new face, Tobiasz Bochenski, who has no chance of winning against PO mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. The problem for Trzaskowski comes from the left, with the candidacy of Senator Magdalena Biejat. In 2018, the mayor won in the first round with a resounding 56.67% of votes. On this occasion, the latest polls point to the possibility of a second round – for the unresolved mayoralties this Sunday, it will be held on April 21 – and speculation is beginning to appear with other possible candidates for the presidency, including Tusk.

Although in these elections the candidates are voted in a more personal way, “one of PO's main objectives is to emerge as the first force,” Szcerbiak emphasizes. It was clear in a message on If that victory does not occur, Flis does not predict any crisis. What's more, he believes that “a good result could be dangerous for the Government, because they could interpret it as a sign that they do not have to worry about unity.” And they still have more elections in si
ght: the European elections in June and the presidential elections in 2025.

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