Third-place finisher Sinan Oğan’s conditions for his support are bad news for opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
In the world an almost unknown Turkish politician has become a decisive figure in the presidential election.
When a sitting president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the leader of the opposition Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu both fell short of 50 percent of the vote in the opening round on Sunday, two weeks from now in the second round the leading role will be played by the national conservative Sinan Oğan voter’s decision.
The stakes could hardly be higher, as Oğan, through his voters, can influence whether Erdoğan’s twenty-year reign will continue.
Oğan got in the first round, 5.17 percent of the votes. Kılıçdaroğlu got 44.89 percent and Erdoğan got 49.50.
The voter turnout was around 87, so it is hardly possible to attract a larger number of voters to the ballot box than those who voted for Oğan.
Oğan has not yet declared his support for either of the finalists. In the past, he has criticized both, but his values are clearly closer to the conservative Erdoğan, who has concentrated power for himself, than to the social democrat Kılıçdaroğlu, who says he wants to restore democracy and parliamentarism to Turkey – when Erdoğan has made the country clearly presidential.
Oğan was the presidential candidate of the nationalist and anti-immigrant ATA coalition.
“We have already made it clear that we will not compromise on the fight against terrorism and the return of refugees,” Oğan told the Reuters news agency on Monday.
By the fight against terrorism, Oğan refers to the decades-long conflict between the government and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkey, the EU and the United States define the PKK as a terrorist organization.
Kılıçdaroğlu, on the other hand, has mainly the support of the Kurds, and he promotes a more humane refugee policy than Erdoğan and Oğan.
Oğan’s according to him, he cannot support Kılıçdaroğlu, if he does not rule out the possibility of concessions to the pro-Kurdish HDP party, which he got to support in the presidential elections.
Judging by everything, it will be easier for Erdoğan than Kılıçdaroğlu to win over Oğan’s voters on Sunday next week. Even if Oğan, for one reason or another, unexpectedly supports Kılıçdaroğlu, it is hard to imagine that a clear majority of his supporters would do the same.
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