The vast majority of strategic experts for this year have already been warned. 2025 was going to be Trump’s year, the Elephant in the pot. Each statement made by the president of the United States was going to have an impact on markets almost at the level of central banks or macroeconomic data. Although, for the moment, he Trump effect It is being the main detractor this year of the good market behavior.
The increase in commercial tensions is not leaving indifferent markets. In Wall Street, the last ads are shaking the S&P 500 that, at the technical level, is in danger of addressing the minimums last August. Specifically, The first support to watch would be in the 5,712 points. That is, the levels at which the main selective of the American parquet was quoted before the general elections that gave the victory to the Republican candidate, the known as the Trump hole.
Currently, and after the new falls suffered by the selective this Tuesday (again, above 1% correction), the S&P 500 would meet A fall of less than 1.4% of this first level. The setbacks of this last session have led to the US index to the negative field in the year, with losses around 0.5%.
The maintenance of this area is key not to continue prolonging correction. In fact, the Ecotrader advisor, Joan Cabrero, was already warning that the loss of the 5,908 points of the S&P 500 was a clear indication of a bearish pattern: “With the transfer of the support presented by the S&P 500 in the 5,908 points, which invited to reduce exposure to the North American market, everything indicates that the indices will see Trump hole.
If that support is finally lost, the S&P 500 opens the door to even deeper falls until the minimum of last August, in the 5,186 points. On current levels, this means that The American index could register losses of up to almost 13%
It would be on the arrival at this level where Cabrero would advise to wait to buy a American bag again: “If they ask me where I would be in favor of buying American variable income, my answer is clear: there is or not more up, I still wait patiently a replica of the August earthquake,” the expert emphasizes.
In the case of the other large Wall Street index, the Nasdaq 100, the first support (the Trump hole) would be located in the 20,000-20,200 points. After the falls on Tuesday, which also exceed 1%, The technological selective moves practically attached to the 20,200 points area. To close definitively below that level, then the index could give up to the minimum of the summer, which are located at 18,750-19,000 points. So far, Nasdaq 100 could enlarge the decreases up to 7%. In the year, Nasdaq 100 already records losses close to 4%.
The markets are still pending of Donald Trump, who has been able to unleash since his arrival at the White House (less than two months ago) a whole commercial war, not only with China, but with multiple open fronts. Beyond the Asian giant (to which an additional tax of 10%applied), On Monday, 25% tariffs entered Mexico and Canada and Justin Trudeau, Canadian president, has already sent his response announcing tariffs on American products.
With all eyes placed in this climbing of tensions, Trump opened a new combat line and, through his Truth social network, communicated the imposition of tariffs on all agricultural products from abroad as of April 2. “To the US farmers: prepare yourself to start making a lot of agricultural products to sell them within the US. There will be tariffs on external products from April 2. Enjoy!”, He declared.
But Trump’s click was not alone there. The president of the United States ordered to suspend all military aid to Ukraineafter the apparent discussion he had with Volodimir Zelenski, Ukrainian president, who took place last Friday at the Oval Office. It is Donald Trump against the rest of the world.
What about Europe?
The market fears that digestion Of the last and strong increases (Eurostoxx 50 has come to add advances from more than 13% since the beginning of the year) Be abruptly, following the steps of the Director Market, Wall Street. The chances of attending an in -depth correction instead of a consolidative process where time is consumed have been increased in the last hours.
Especially with the decrease greater than 2% recorded by the selective continentals on Tuesday. Eurostoxx 50 is one of the most punished indexes in Europe exceeding the decreases of the French CAC 40, and registering in line losses with those registered in the Variable Income of Germany.
“Tracks that would aim towards the beginning of a more corrective process than consolidative such as the one we are seeing in the short term we would find if the Eurostoxx 50 loses the 5,400 points“, says Joan Cabrero, technical analyst and strategist of ECOTRADER. A level that during the day on Tuesday was drilled during specific moments. The expert, in fact, emphasizes that From an operational point of view“A return to 5,250 points -Correction of 38.2% of fibonacci of the bullish section from the 4,800 at 5,545 points– It would be an excellent opportunity to buy European variable income again. “
For their part, for those most cautious investors who trust a more pronounced fall, the next entry level would be in the area of the 5,050-5,080 pointswhich is a level that would imply seeing a decrease of just over 6% from the current levels and that would mean returning to the levels at which Eurostoxx 50 was moved at the beginning of the year.
In the case of Ibex 35the losses of the beginning of the week throw by land The hope of achieving its eleventh week of upward registration. And that on the first day of the week the Spanish index managed 13,347 points.
“Once this series fails to stand (you have to find confirmation to weekly closure) I am in favor of favoring a roof at the rise that was born in the area of the 11,300 points“Joan Cabrero explains.
“The last weekly minimum has been established in the 12,927 points“, recalls the expert, who warns that unless the Spanish selective loses this level at weekly closure,” the control will continue in the hands of the bulls. “
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