Trump dreams of an economic disaster

Did Donald Trump just say that he hopes an economic catastrophe? Not quite. But what he did say is arguably even worse, especially once put into context.

And Trump's obvious panic over the recent good economic news delves into what I believe is the biggest enigma in American politics: Why have so many people joined—and handcuffed—a cult of personality? built around a man who represents an existential threat to our nation's democracy and who, on a personal level, is also a complete braggart?

But what did Trump really say last Monday? Strictly speaking, he did not wish for a crash, but rather predicted it, stating that the economy is running out of “fuel,” and that he expects the inevitable crash to occur this year, “because I don't want to be Herbert Hoover.”

If you think about it, this is not at all what a man who believes himself to be a brilliant economic manager and supposedly cares about the well-being of the nation should say. What he should have said rather was something like this: “My rival's policies have led us to disaster, but I hope that disaster does not come until I am in office, because I do not want the American people to suffer unnecessarily and , since I am a very stable genius, “I'm the only one who can fix it.”

But no, Trump says he wants the disaster to happen when someone else is on call, expressly and explicitly so he doesn't have to bear the responsibility.

Speaking of which, when did Trump start predicting economic disaster during the Biden presidency? The answer is: before the 2020 election. In October 2020, for example, he claimed that a Biden victory would “trigger an economic disaster of epic proportions.”

Now, all those who make economic forecasts are wrong about some. I personally predicted a recession if Trump won in 2016, in part because the markets seemed to believe that a Trump victory would be bad for the economy. But I backtracked on that prediction just three days after the election, acknowledging that I had briefly succumbed to biased reasoning.

Trump, on the other hand, has been predicting disaster with Biden for more than three years, without ever acknowledging that his predictions have not materialized. Instead, Trump has treated us to a series of false and desperate claims about the state of the economy. No, the price of bacon has not “multiplied by five” with Biden.

Some of these false claims fall into the category of “who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?” Last month, for example, Trump declared that gasoline costs “$5, $6, $7, even $8 a gallon,” despite huge billboards advertising gas prices all over the country. slightly above $3.

Maybe Trump doesn't come out much.

But what he certainly does do is watch a lot of television, which means he is aware that the stock market has risen quite a bit lately. Clearly, this worries him. In fact, he appears to be so rattled by the rises in stocks during Biden's term that in one of his last speeches he managed to dismiss those rises as irrelevant—they only “make rich people richer”—and at the same time take credit: “The stock market is doing well because many people believe that we are going to win the elections.”

If this sounds ridiculous, that's because it is. Here we have a guy who spent much of his tenure boasting about a soaring stock market suddenly declaring that stock returns are bad when someone else is in power, while insisting that he deserves credit for the good things. (or are they bad?) that happen when he is not even running the country.

Does this matter? Trump may want an economic crisis, but as far as I know, he has no tools that can cause it. But as I wrote the other daythere is a risk that pressure from Trump and his allies will lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates too high for too long.

Practical concerns aside, however, Trump's tantrums over the economy and the stock market raise the mystery of his political appeal.

I hate to say it, but I understand why millions of people are attracted to Trump's dictatorial ambitions, his support for violence, his statements that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.” The sad truth is that there have always been many Americans who basically do not believe in America's democratic ideals.

But I find it baffling that Trump doesn't pay a higher political price for his bluster, whining, and self-serving lies.

The MAGA types [siglas en inglés de “Hagamos que Estados Unidos vuelva a ser grande”] They tend to idealize the 1950s, largely based on a fictional image of what life was really like at that time. It was especially terrible if you were not a white man, but things could go pretty bad even if you were. One thing we did have in the 1950s, however, was an image of how men were supposed to behave, an image that emphasized stoicism, honesty, and a willingness to take responsibility for their own actions: what my parents would have called a mensch [una persona buena y honesta].

Trump is so far from being a good and honest person. However, his supporters either don't see it or don't care, which, in my opinion, is further from traditional values ​​than all the wokeness, or social and racial awareness, in the world.

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