Mexico faces the possibility of twelve more years of anti-immigrant republican harassment: the four of Donald Trump and the eight of his vice president James David Vance. And for this long-term scenario, the President Biden is leaving the Republicans with a structure of bilateral relations that will continue to impose on the country the Washington’s priority strategic interests.
Faced with the threat looming from the north, the government of President Lopez Obrador He has applied the strategy of stealing: sailing around the big fish that want to eat the little one, but without defining an articulated foreign policy of State, and based only on phrases of friendship with Trump.
And the new government of Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo only replicates a minor part of that Tabasco style, with the fact that the designation advance of the Former university rector Juan Ramon de la Fuente Ramirez as secretary appointed of External relationships The new government that begins on October 1 did not generate any American messages or expectations.
Following what happened in the United States with the attack on Trumphe anti-immigrant reinforcement for the Republican Convention and the blunderbuss Trump-Vance with a speech deporting undocumented immigrants and closing the bordernational expectations would be depending on a clear and direct positioning of the new Mexican government that announces the principles of foreign policy with the United States, beyond the elusive phrases of the morning.
Although it was foreseeable for reasons of political time, the President Biden signed the revalidation of the Obama Law of 2011 that authorizes one of the most aggressive imperial invasions of the White House against Mexico: the operational conceptualization of the Mexican cartels as Transnational Criminal Organizations, granting the US government the unilateral supranational right to pursue drug traffickers in its other countries.
The Obama Act established the interventionist principle of the US to get into Mexico to pursue drug traffickers, although without decisions to combat the two real scourges of drug trafficking within the United States: the unlimited consumption of drugs to generate an internal demand by American addicts that explains the rise of the cartels, and the passivity of the US government to pursue Mexican cartels within the US.
The operational capacity of Mexican cartels in the US has been surprising: Since 2005, the country has gone from small drug smuggling gangs to creating, installing and expanding a criminal empire with a cartel structure –according to the latest official report from the DEA– in all 50 states of the United States. This means that the US is shouting “thief” to criminalize the cartels in Mexico, but is complicitly silent about the fact that these same criminal drug gangs are now consolidated, diversified and transnationalized companies within American territory.
Although the reconfirmation of the Obama Law was foreseeable due to the cycles of validity, one should not lose sight of the strategic fact that during his first presidency Trump requested official information on what was needed to launch missiles from the US at territorial positions of drug traffickers in Mexico, generating the conditions and circumstances of a true interventionist war.
In reality, Mexico lacked a truly comprehensive policy of redefining bilateral relations during the Lopez Obrador administration, which followed the model defined by former ambassador Jeffrey Davidow of a diplomacy between a bear and a porcupine, the US as the threatening bear that only wants to maintain control of its territory and Mexico as the small porcupine with quills that would not destroy its adversary but would hurt it.
While the US, with Biden and Trump, reaffirms the scheme of imperial domination policies that subordinate its allies, Mexico, with López Obrador and his foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón, did not seek concrete strategies and applied the old model of issue by issue and the threat of bilateral rupture on the most delicate strategic territorial border of the US. And if Mexico managed to have some of the serious decisions of the White House attenuated, it did not build a true long-term policy. Sheinbaum Pardo and the designated foreign minister de la Fuente Ramírez would maintain the AMLO model of bilateral relations that in the long run has always affected Mexico due to the subordination of the model of the commercial treaty of President Carlos Salinas de Gortari that erased the nationalist diplomacy of the 20th century.
The arrival of a new cycle of bilateral relations is seen adversely for Mexico on both sides of the border.
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