The current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is competing in the May 14 elections, and the leader of the opposition coalition, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, head of the Republican People’s Party, behind whom most of the powerful opposition parties are clustered..
With the start of the election campaigns, Turkish analysts and former MPs for “Sky News Arabia” map the voting trends they expect in the 11 states hit by the earthquake, especially after many of their residents left their cities or resided in shelter camps and lost their papers..
voting intentions
- Regarding the impact of the earthquake and the government’s handling of it on the voting intentions of those affected, Turkish political analyst Hisham Gunay says that the affected provinces “mostly vote for the ruling Justice and Development Party and its ally, the National Movement Party, and I did not see a significant shift in the voting intentions of the voters according to the rounds I made.” there“.
- Junai attributes this to the fact that “electors are convinced that the earthquake is a natural disaster from God, and the government has done everything it can, and has not failed, except that the Antakya region, which has a diverse population of Alawites and Christians, and is a voting area for the (opposition) Republican People’s Party has a destination. other consideration“.
- In detail, the Turkish analyst expects that the vote for the Justice and Development Party will witness a significant decline in Hatay, while it will guarantee votes in Kahramanmaraş, Adiyaman and Malatya..
- The earthquake region voted 65 percent or more in favor of the AKP and its ally in the 2018 elections.
Traditional strongholds of the ruling party
Former parliamentarian for the Justice and Development Party, Rasul Tosun, describes the states affected by the earthquake as “traditional strongholds of the party, and I voted for him in previous elections, and most of the mayors are from the ruling party, and those who received aid during the earthquake will undoubtedly vote for President Erdogan.”“.
However, the former MP points out that there may be fluctuation in the hardest hit areas that suffered during the quake.
affected vote
The Directorate General of Population and Citizenship Affairs issued a statement that includes instructions for those affected on how to register to vote, in which it stated:
- People whose addresses are located in the affected provinces can change their addresses to other provinces via e-government platforms, census and civil registration offices.
- Change of address and residence permit procedures for earthquake victims who have moved to other provinces can be done through the same method.
- Due to the fact that the accommodation has become unusable, e-government directorates are being sent to places such as caravans, tents, temporary homes, and nursing homes; To issue a polling address announcement before the election.
Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag also stated, “There is no need for a new legal regulation for the upcoming elections, and the existing laws will be implemented“.
In parallel, the Supreme Council for Elections completes the update of the electoral lists, with the authorization of the Ministry of Interior, and then the final list is published.
The elections will come 3 months after the devastating earthquake that struck the country, killing more than 54,000 people in Turkey and Syria, and affecting 156,000 buildings that either collapsed or were damaged to the point of demolition, amid international expectations that the cost of reconstruction will reach $100 billion. .
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