RThe US is increasingly turning to powerful guided aerial bombs to suppress Ukrainian defences. In March it launched 50% more than the previous month on Ukraine, which lacks the means to counter this growing threat due to the lack of modern fighters and more anti-aircraft defense systems.
More than 2,300 bombs of this type were dropped by Russia in the first month of spring, thus breaking the previous record set in February, when 1,500 were employed, according to Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko.
“These types of bombs are likely to play the main role in Russia's attempts to break our defense lines and fortified areas during the major offensive planned later this year,” Kovalenko wrote on his Telegram channel.
If current trends continue, Russia will soon be able to drop 3,000 or even 5,000 bombs a month, he warns.
Key to the Russian offensive
The intensive use of bombs continued even though Ukraine shot down 15 Russian Su-34 and Su-35 bombers in February and the first half of March.
“Russia continues to send planes and pilots to the front despite all the risks for one simple reason. Without bombs, its army becomes much less effective in its offensive operations,” explains the analyst.
A bomb of this type is equipped with a navigation system that directs it to the desired target and carries between 250 and 1,500 kilograms of explosives. It easily destroys “any fortification”, according to a recent analysis by the digital media “Texty”, and can also inflict heavy losses on troops in the area.
“Apart from direct damage from bomb fragments, all combatants within a 100-meter radius suffer shock, barotrauma, and lose combat ability for a time,” the analysis argues.
Aside from the front line, where they helped Russia make gains especially near the eastern city of Avdivka, recently taken over by Kremlin troops, guided bombs are also used to attack other residential areas.
On Sunday, two guided aerial bombs damaged residential buildings in Kharkiv, in the east of the country. A day earlier, the use of a particularly powerful ODAB-1500 bomb was confirmed in the town of Velika Pisarivka, in the northeastern region of Sumi.
The number of bombs Russia has at its disposal is essentially “unlimited,” while production of guidance elements that assist the bombs has recently increased, according to Texty.
However, the number of Su-34 bombers used to launch them is limited, with about 80 currently at Russia's disposal.
Limited means to counter the threat
Targeting Russian bombers or their bases is the only viable way to protect against guided bombs.
Unlike missiles, bombs can hardly be intercepted, Ukrainian air force spokesman Illia Yevlash explained on Monday in statements to Ukrainian television.
“We have to continue developing air defense systems that work directly on the front line to protect the infantry, which suffers dozens of bombs of this type every day,” he said.
However, Ukraine only has a few modern air defense systems capable of reaching Russian bombers, which drop bombs from 70 kilometers away from their target, such as the American Patriots or the Franco-Italian SAMP/T, which also needs to protect its cities and infrastructure.
When used near the front line, they become targets for Russian drones and missiles.
Ukraine could also use modern fighters, such as F-16s, to shoot down bombers, or long-range ATACMS missiles to attack aviation bases in the occupied territories, Kovalenko explained to EFE.
However, the country only expects to receive the first batch of F-16s thi
s summer. In addition, it has very few long-range missiles, the analyst emphasizes.
Under such conditions, Ukraine should rely on its own production capacity, suggests Igor Lutsenko, a pioneer in the use of drones in the Ukrainian Army.
“We should produce at least a hundred light and cheap drones every day, which could attack Russian airfields,” he argues on his social networks.
It is urgent to find solutions, either by accelerating international aid or local production, several analysts agree, since Russia intends to extend the use of this type of bombs along the entire front line, as well as increase their power and precision.
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