The war in Gaza opens new sources of tension in the Middle East

October 7, 2023 marked a before and after in the situation in the Middle East and three months later the region has not found calm. “It is a moment of deep tension,” said Antony Blinken, Secretary of States of the United States, this January 7, after his visit to Jordan, where he was received by King Abdullah II, to address, precisely, the conflict. .

The American politician expressed his concerns to the king about the “catastrophic repercussions” that the war between Israel and Hamas would have if it spread to other countries. “This is a conflict that could easily metastasize, causing even more insecurity and even more suffering,” he said.

More than 90 days have passed since Hamas' surprise attack on Israel, which triggered an unprecedented military response on Gaza. Blinken tours the countries with which the United States is closest in the region: Qatar, Jordan, Israel, among others. But it is Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, among others, that could play a leading role in the War.

When the attack on Al-Shifa Hospital, the largest in Gaza, occurred, Arab countries condemned it and blamed Israel and the West (the United States) for supporting the destruction of the Palestinian enclave. The attack, which occurred at the end of November, caused massive demonstrations and even attacks on Israel's diplomatic delegations in those countries.

Middle East stability hangs by a thread

It only takes one miscalculation by one of the countries for violence to break out. The biggest concern is that Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia, decides to fully enter the war against Israel or that Benjamin Netanyahu's government takes its troops to this country.

The alerts to northern Israel have been constant and increasingly followed in the last three months. Hezbollah has not stopped attacking, and counterattacking in response to Israeli attacks. This Saturday, January 6, it launched an offensive against a key Israeli observation post, near Meron, in northern Israel, in retaliation for the assassination of one of the Hamas leaders in its territory.

There were 62 bombs “as a preliminary response” to the assassination of Hamas number two, Saleh al-Arouri, in Beirut, on January 2. “He was really an important friend, a brother and very dear to me,” said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Furthermore, he made it clear that his death “will not go unanswered or unpunished.”

Some 670 operations on the Lebanon-Israel border have been carried out since the war in Gaza began. Hamas allies reported that they have destroyed a “large number” of Israeli military vehicles and tanks. “Whoever thinks about war with us, in a word, will regret it,” Nasrallah said.

The conflict in Gaza reached the Red Sea

Since October 7, numerous ships have been attacked by Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran. The political-military group has threatened to attack any ship leaving or entering Israel, in solidarity with Gaza, unless it is humanitarian aid.

Since then, there have been several shots fired at vessels transiting this corridor. In total, 40% of world trade sails through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, where the Houthis have increased their attacks.

The response of the United States was the creation of an alliance, according to the American Minister of Defense, Lloyd Austin, which will be composed of France, the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, the United States and the Seychelles islands. .

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But a warlike response also came. The United States Navy announced the defense of this important trade transit zone and attacked three Houthi ships, killing ten people, on December 31, 2023. It was the first time that the country acted militarily since the conflict began.

The spokesman for the Yemeni Armed Forces, Yahya Sare'e, issued a warning to the United States and all countries that intend to confront them. “The Yemeni Armed Forces would do everything necessary to defend themselves and confront any aggression within their religious and patriotic duties and responsibilities,” he reported.

Yemen rebels require all vessels to report that they have no connection to Israel. However, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, head of the Houthi supreme revolutionary committee, also warned that any country that becomes involved in the US-led Red Sea coalition will lose its maritime security and will be attacked.

Urgent diplomatic visits

The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, arrived this Sunday, January 7, in the United Arab Emirates, after speaking with the authorities of Qatar and Jordan, about the need for Israel to “adjust” its military operations.

It is Blinken's fourth visit to the region since October 7. An uncomfortable presence for certain countries that are enemies of the United States, as well as for Hamas. Osama Hamdan, a senior official of the Palestinian group, asked this January 7 to review the policy that the US has managed throughout the conflict in Gaza. “The American position of support for this entity (in reference to Israel) was the main factor in the continuation of this aggression,” he stated.

For the military expert, Abed al-Thawr, the participation of the United States in the conflict in the Red Sea, “is undermining the peace process in the region. What the United States wants now is to increase tensions in the region because this will benefit to Israel,” says the expert, referring to the decades-long peace process between Israel and the Palestinian Territories, which seemed to have fruits, but after the war that began on October 7, has remained stagnant.

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For its part, US diplomacy ensures that its role against the Houthi attacks seeks to benefit world trade.

“These Houthi attacks are harming people around the world. Above all, the poorest and most vulnerable populations, including Yemen and Gaza. That is why the United States launched 'Operation Prosperity Guardian,' together with more than 20 countries, to defend the security of commercial shipping through the Red Sea,” Blinken said, at a press conference.

At the same time, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, also tours some countries to ask that they use their ties to calm tempers in the region. “I am here as we are seeing a worrying escalation in the exchange of fire across the blue line on the Lebanese-Israeli border. And I believe that war can be prevented,” said Borrell, in a press conference together with the interim Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdullah Bou Habib.

The message from the European diplomat was clear: “It is absolutely necessary to prevent Lebanon from being dragged into a regional conflict.” Borrell will visit Saudi Arabia on January 7 and 8. “The mission follows his trip to Lebanon and is part of the official's commitment to regional partners to advance diplomatic efforts to create the conditions to achieve a just and lasting peace between Israel, Palestine and the region,” notes a press release cited by EFE.

The UN has reiterated its concern about the war in Gaza. Tor Wennesland, United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, said that there is a risk that some of the countries, due to miscalculation in their attacks, make mistakes and generate an escalation of violence “that represents a serious threat to regional stability.”

For this not to happen, he said, “it is imperative that Lebanon is not dragged into a regional conflagration and that the parties return to a cessation of hostilities.” He also addressed the escalation in the Red Sea and expressed concern about the safety of shipping. To this, he added his expressed concern about the increase in tensions in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, the lethal attacks carried out by Israeli settlers against Palestinians and by Palestinians against Israelis in the occupied West Bank and in Israel.

The conflict in Gaza leaves more than 22,800 Palestinians dead, more than 58,000 injured and almost half of its population displaced. On behalf of Israel, there are more than 500 dead soldiers, more than 1,100 Israelis murdered, along with a hundred hostages still in the hands of Hamas, after being captured on October 7, 2023, the day that marked a before and after. in the Middle East.

With Reuters, EFE, AP and AFP