The vote for the PSOE falls again, weighed down by the amnesty, which gives wings to Vox

The PP would win the general elections if they were held today, with almost four points ahead of the PSOE, which is once again losing support in a key month of the debate on the amnesty law, currently unsuccessful, for those accused of the processes, according to the February barometer of 40dB. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER. The survey, carried out during the last week of January, reflects a general fall of the left bloc, more pronounced in the case of the socialists (they lose 0.9% points from one month to the next). The right-wing bloc is growing thanks to a new boost from Vox, which also rises 0.9% points and is positioned as the third force, with 11.8% electoral support, above Sumar, which falls to fourth place ( 10.9%).

With the Galician elections in sight, the socialists see their percentage of the vote fall to 30.5%, which had been recovering slightly in the last two months and returns to the levels it had in December, after the inauguration of Pedro Sánchez . The PP, with 34.4% support, does not recover either, and falls again for the second consecutive month, but the revitalization of support for Santiago Abascal's ultra party puts the right-wing bloc clearly above the left-wing bloc. The barometer, which does not include seat allocation, shows that only Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party is the only one that has grown compared to the 23-J elections.

The survey, prepared from 2,000 interviews carried out between January 26 and 29 and with a margin of error of 2.2%, reflects that only Vox improves among the four major parties, just at a time when the formation Ultra has hardened its position on the amnesty and has distanced itself from the PP. The Popular Party does not see an increase in support, but it maintains a very loyal electorate, a phenomenon from which Vox also benefits. This loyalty explains both the slight fall of the PP compared to the January barometer (where it achieved 34.7% support, 1.6 points more than the previous month) and the rise of Vox. Thus, the PP's losses are compensated by the rise of Vox, which results in a strengthening of the right.

The bloc on the right thus surpasses that on the left by 5.2 percentage points (46.2% compared to 41.4%), which represents a sharp increase in the gap between both factions with respect to the barometer of the month past, in which the distance was only 3.2 points. The debate on the amnesty law, whose opinion was rejected last week in Congress by the joint vote of PP, Vox and Junts, coincides with a result for the socialists that represents the worst percentage of support since the general elections of 23- J, a record that they had already obtained in the December barometer of 40dB.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party, despite suffering its second consecutive drop in support, would currently have 1.3 points more than what it obtained in the 23-J elections (it was the party with the most votes with 33.1% of the vote). percentage of votes), while the socialists have lost 1.2 points (compared to 31.7% in the general elections in July). Vox, despite this month's comeback, continues to have less support than in the last elections, the same as Sumar, which is the formation that loses the most compared to that appointment with the polls (falls 1.4 points).

One of the keys to the evolution of the vote is the loyalty of the electorate. While the popular and ultras keep the ranks tight among their voters, the supporters of the socialists and Sumar are somewhat more fickle. Thus, the PSOE suffers especially in this month of February, as vote transfers to the PP increased by 1.2 points. At the same time, the transfer of votes from Sumar is reduced to 4.2% (compared to the previous 9.3%).

The survey provides significant data that differentiates Vox from the other three major parties. While PSOE, Sumar and PP have more women voters than men (the socialists reach 55.7% of the female vote), support for Santiago Abascal's party is mostly male, with 62.8% compared to 37.2% of female vote. The survey reflects that the gap continues to grow, which points to a continued loss of women's support from the far-right formation, while more and more men vote for Vox.