The US electoral process begins: 5 points to understand the primaries in Iowa

The 2024 US presidential election officially begins this Monday, when Republicans from the farm state of Iowa head to school gymnasiums and public libraries to deliberate who should become their party's candidate for the White House.

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This Midwestern state of three million people is proud of the unusual system of caucuses it uses to determine How many delegates will represent their respective candidates at the national party nominating conventions this summer?.

These are the keys to the process.

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1. What is a caucus?

In a caucus, participants physically show their preference for a certain candidate by gathering with other like-minded voters in a designated spot in a roomin stark contrast to the confidentiality of a voting booth.

The vote, in which registered party members participate, is carried out in stages.

For Democrats, Candidates typically need the support of at least 15 percent of voters present to qualify for a runoff..

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Supporters of candidates who do not meet that threshold have three options during a second round, which is held immediately.

They can move to another part of the room to support another finalist candidate; they may try to persuade their peers to help them push their own candidate over the 15 percent hurdle; or they may not vote.

The procedure is similar for Republicans, although among them there is no minimum threshold that candidates must reach to obtain delegates.

Defenders of this peculiar custom praise it for its participatory nature.

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2. Why is the process started in Iowa?

In the vast majority of states in the Union, the Republican and Democratic parties hold primary elections to determine which candidates will win those states' delegates.

But during the 2024 cycle, seven states will host caucuses for at least one of the two major parties during the winter and spring.

Political observers watch Iowa closely, as results in this state — which since the 1970s has been scheduled to vote first on the nation's political calendar — often influence the results of subsequent primaries and caucuses.

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That means The size and effectiveness of candidates' early operations in Iowa are important to their long-term success.despite the relatively few electoral delegates at stake there.

3. Does this system have any problems?

The community participation required in a caucus is not appreciated in the same way by everyone: Some voters are put off by the thought of spending a long Monday afternoon debating crowds of strangers..

Others must navigate logistical challenges presented by frigid weather, work obligations, or the need to care for their children.

Critics have criticized Iowa's status, arguing that a state with such a small population and whose demographics are much whiter than average, should not occupy such an influential position.

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In 2020, the system came close to collapsing among Democrats, when a new mobile application intended to offer more transparency and speed in vote counting failed and only allowed partial recounts.

The final results were delayed for three days and the chairman of the state Democratic Party eventually resigned.

4. How will it work in the 2024 cycle?

The Iowa caucuses, usually held in February, in 2024 take place much earlier, on January 15.

Democrats are conducting their operations in the state slightly differently than in other years: Party members will meet, as always, on caucus day to discuss candidates and other issues, but now they will indicate their preference by mail before the March 5th.

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And there are far fewer Democrats running in the state this time, as President Joe Biden appears likely to clinch the party's nomination.

On the Republican side, voters will choose between several candidates, although former President Donald Trump is well ahead of his rivals in the polls.

5. Who are the Republican candidates?

In total, there are five Republican candidates. Former US President Donald Trump is the favorite to win the Iowa caucuses this Monday and also the nomination of the Republican Party to be its candidate for the White House in the November elections..

Iowa will test that popularity among the base and will define whether the Republican primaries will be the triumphant ride that many predict for Trump or if one of his rivals in this race manages to overshadow him.

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And Trump has four rivals in front of him that he must defeat first.

First of all, There is Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida since 2019, who was for some months the favorite to become the Republican candidate, especially right after the assault by Trump supporters on the Capitol in January 2021.

Trump emerged defeated and as a kind of political pariah and DeSantis took advantage of the moment to emerge as the renewal of 'Trumpism' without the former president. But Trump reappeared with all the artillery and DeSantis has found it difficult to maneuver in that scenario.

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The 45-year-old governor of Florida is perhaps the most at stake in Iowa. A bad result, such as not even finishing second, would put his campaign in check this Monday. The governor of Iowa, Republican Kim Reynolds, has supported DeSantis' candidacy and has predicted that if Trump does not reach 50% there is still a party.

On the other hand, there is Nikki Haley, the only woman in the race, who was governor of South Carolina (2011-2017) and United States ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump Administration (2017-2018), but left office mid-term to distance herself from the former president.

Haley, 51, has emerged as the candidate of the few Republicans who dare to say that they do not want to see Trump even in painting and also of the large donors of Wall Street, which places her close to what in the United States United is known as the 'establishment'.

In Iowa He only needs to confirm his upward trend to reach New Hampshire, the second state called to the polls (January 23), in a position to win. He has received the support of the popular governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, and the polls increasingly show greater equality with Trump.

The other name in the fray is Vivek Ramaswamy. Billionaire, self-made and scourge of 'woke' thinking, Ramaswamy, 38-year-old son of immigrants from India, is the most alternative of the Republican candidates aspiring to the Presidency.

He has been the one who has distinguished himself the most in the Republican debates (in which Trump has not participated), not for his eloquence or oratory, but for his aggressiveness with his rivals, especially with Haley, who lost her temper and called him “scum” in one of those exchanges.

He is the favorite in certain right-wing circles for opposing initiatives for political, social and environmental progress. In the Iowa caucuses it will be seen whether or not the Republican electorate takes this seriously.

The deck closes with Asa Hutchinson. With a long political career with executive responsibilities during the George W. Bush Administration (2001-2009) and which culminated as governor of Arkansas (2015-2023), Hutchinson, 73, is one of the few Republicans who has openly criticized Trump and said he should withdraw from the race..

The polls have turned their backs on Hutchinson, who this week said he will evaluate the viability of his campaign when the Iowa results are known.

INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL
*With information from AFP and EFE