The United States is going through a decisive and high-tension electoral year

2024 will be the most tumultuous election year in recent history. In nearly 40 countries around the world, which represent approximately the 40% of the world populationnational elections will be held.

Millions will vote in India, Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Turkey, the United Kingdom and Venezuela, among others. And in the United States, a new president, a third of the Senate, the entire House of Representatives and hundreds of state and local leaders and judges will be elected.

The voting intention for the primaries of both parties, Democratic and Republican, indicates that President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump will once again face each other for the Presidency as they did in 2020. A survey by 'The New York Times' reveals that Trump is ahead of Biden by more than five points percentages in the seven pendulum states that can define the choice.

The position of the Biden Administration towards Israel and its war in Gaza, inflation and the migratory crisis are issues that constantly question the American president.

The young people and minorities who have been crucial in the past legislative elections have distanced themselves from the president's actions and projects for 2024. In fact, he 70% of young people in the United States disapprove of Biden's handling of the conflict between Israel and Gaza.

For its part, minority leaders arabsAfrican Americans and Latinas have openly stated that they will not vote for the Democrat if the US continues to send weapons and money to Israel and if the refusal to support a ceasefire continues when the number of victims exceeds 23,400, mostly women and children.

Biden sends $3.8 billion a year to Tel Aviv and wants to transfer 10 billion more in the coming months with the prior approval, somewhat elusive by the Republican opposition, of Congress.

Abstention, another challenge

The elections in the United States will be held on Tuesday, November 5, a working day in which discontent could lead to high abstention and favor Trump as happened in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.

In swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania, where the presidential election is defined, a difference of 20,000 votes could tip the balance in favor of a candidate. In 2020, Biden won by a margin of 20,600 votes in Wisconsin.

“Joe Biden is a politician who has not managed to inspire voters like Barack Obama, another Democratic candidate, did at the time. So really, Joe Biden, without inspiring people and with the economy against him, may not win the election,” says Andrew Seele, president of the World Migration Organization, adding that the American public still feels that the The economy is not good, even though the experts say it is.

What affects ordinary people the most is inflation, says Seele.

This is the 60th presidential election and The winning candidate will need nearly 81 million votes to achieve the 270 electoral votes that will allow him to reach the White House..

Trump and Justice

Donald Trump, who continues to allege “electoral fraud” in the last 2020 elections, faces four legal trials and 91 criminal charges against him. His campaign agenda will be very busy with visits to court in Atlanta, Miami, Washington and New York and his legal expenses will cost the former president millions of dollars, which according to legal analysts the Presidency will be the only thing that saves him from prison .

Trump, at 78 years old, has known how to monetize his trials by receiving donations from his supporters to cover his million-dollar expenses and campaign.

“Overall, Trump's wealth depends less on the real estate empire for which he was once known and more on businesses that convert his political popularity into dollars,” reads the statement shared in court and revealed by the 'Times'.

According to the American media, Trump reported earnings of approximately $14.8 million from paid speeches in 2022 and 2023, he received 250,000 from the Log Cabin Republicans, a gay Republican group, and about 2.3 million for four speeches from the American Freedom Tour, a group that organized rallies for Trump's profit. Additionally, the former president earned $2 million giving two speeches to the Universal Peace Federation, a branch of the Unification Church.

For Republican analyst Arthur Estopinan, Trump will return to the White House, in part, because of his stronger stances toward other world leaders.

“The former president will win the elections because he has a vision for the United States and a stronger stance against (Russian) President Vladimir Putin, against Chinese leader Xi Jinping and in North Korea with Kim Jong-Un,” says Estopinan.

Trump's controversial statements regarding immigrants, the economy, personal attacks on the judges who handle his legal processes and his position against autocratic regimes are already beginning to attract media attention.

During this 2024 election, many eye-catching headlines will be read that will further polarize the American voter and will drive those who continue to believe in the “Make America Great Again” project or those who vote to prevent Trump's return to the White House to the polls. .

The road is still long. In the first half of 2024, the race for the Presidency begins with the primary elections in which each state votes to define its presidential candidate for the Democratic and Republican parties. The first stop will be in Iowa, where through the caucus or group of registered voters, the winner of the Republican nomination in that state will be defined.

In the following months, the rest of the 50 states will define their candidate for the Presidency and in mid-July and August the Democratic and Republican National Conventions will be held respectively, where the official nomination of candidates from the two parties will be made. In September and October, the three presidential debates will take place in Texas, Virginia and Utah.

The United States is heading into a decisive electoral year in which a model will be chosen in a volatile and complex context and with it, decisions that will directly affect other latitudes.