The United Kingdom goes to the polls with Labour as the favourites and with the shadow of the extreme right

With the UK general election on July 4 just hours away, the former British Empire is at a crucial crossroads that could reshape not only its domestic political future but also its position in regional geopolitics just when the pendulum in Europe is beginning to swing towards an anti-immigrant and nationalist right.

The election promises to be a turning point for a nation where all opinion polls predict a victory for the opposition Labour Party and its centre-right leader, Keir Starmer, 61, who has every chance of ousting Rishi Sunak, 42, from the worn-out Conservative Party, which has been in power for 14 years.

The United Kingdom – with 69 million inhabitants – has a parliamentary political system in which a record 4,515 candidates aspire to occupy one of the 650 seats in the Palace of Westminster.the historic building dating back more than 900 years, seat of the British Legislature in the heart of London.

The sui generis electoral system consists of the winner being the candidate from each constituency represented by a Member of Parliament (MP) or deputy, and the political party with the most legislative representatives will govern with the consent of King Charles III, who is the head of the constitutional monarchy and whose political decisions are in the hands of the parliamentary political power.

There are currently 543 seats in England, 57 in Scotland, 32 in Wales and 18 in Northern Ireland.

Amid what some have described as a premonitory downpour, on 30 May Sunak unexpectedly dissolved Parliament and called a general election. All MP seats were vacant and the legislative body will only meet again on 9 July to appoint the new prime minister, who will be selected by the political party with the majority.

One curious thing about this process is that, for the first time in history, a photo ID is required of voters who go to the polls, something that has not been well received by many Britons who are unaccustomed to having to legally prove their identity.

According to election forecasts, the so-called Tory awning, the name by which conservatives are known,the erratic government policies taken since 2010 would be taking their toll.

“This means that while income inequality has remained stable, progress in reducing absolute poverty has been painfully slow.”

Cut off from its one-time European Union allies after Brexit, the country has seen its finances deteriorate amid the worst economic crisis since World War II, leaving it far behind its partners in the more powerful G7 countries, including the United States, Germany and Japan.

It has been of no use to the billionaire prime minister, who was born to Indian parents and educated at one of the most elite universities, to have controlled inflation from its peak of 11 percent in 2022 to 2 percent last May. Despite this improvement, bank interest rates remain at 5.5 percent, reflecting the persistent economic tensions.

According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), in almost 15 years of Conservative rule, the UK has seen slow growth for virtually everyone: rich and poor, old and young. “This means that while income inequality has remained stable, progress in reducing absolute poverty has been painfully slow,” Tom Waters, associate director of the IFS, told local media at the start of the election campaign in late May.

The Conservative leader is perceived as out of touch with the reality of a tenth of the population, who are mired in extreme poverty, and as suffering the effects of political wear and tear after having gone through five prime ministers in 14 years of government, starting with David Cameron (now Foreign Secretary), going on to Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Trust and Sunak himself.

All opinion polls predict that a Labour victory would be a landslide, which could secure control of the 650-seat House of Commons by at least 100 MPs, while the Conservatives could be relegated to third place.

Whoever wins Thursday’s vote will face the challenges laid out in the six-week election campaign, which has been dominated by local issues such as the stagnant economy, the cost of living and high foreign immigration.

In foreign policy matters, the agenda revolves around the war in Ukraine and the threat of Russia to the European system, in addition to the serious crisis in the Middle East. with Israel’s armed actions in Palestinian territory in retaliation for the attacks

by the Hamas group last October, which left some 1,200 people dead and another 250 kidnapped.

The ghost of the right prevails

The Tory debacle goes hand in hand with the rise of the far right led by anti-EU, anti-immigration populist Nigel Farage of the Reform movement, which has agglutinated the discontent of conservative rebels. That is the same phenomenon seen in the European Parliament elections and far-right governments in six countries in the bloc, including Italy, Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia and the Czech Republic.

This right-wing wave is also being felt in the Netherlands, where anti-Islam activist Geert Wilders is on the brink of power after having sealed a historic agreement to form the most right-wing government in the country’s recent history. Far-right parties also dominate the polls in much of Europe.

In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is holding on to more than 30 percent, well ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, according to a poll by Politico.

Across the Rhine, Alternative for Germany, a party under police surveillance for its extremist views, is running second in the polls, neck and neck with the Social Democrats.

“In the context of a Europe that is already moving to the right, the UK elections seem, at first glance, something of a conundrum,” Labour politician and journalist Paul Donovan explained to EL TIEMPO, detailing that an electorate apparently wedded to a very destructive form of right-wing, market-based politics is about to elect a left-wing social democratic party by an overwhelming majority.”

“In the context of a Europe already moving to the right, the UK election seems, at first glance, something of a puzzle”

Looking more closely, Donovan says, what is happening in the UK “fits well into broader European movements.” In the European context, the reality is that the UK is already to the right of mainstream Europe:

the act of self-harm called brexit is testimony to this.

“Unfortunately, Labour is unlikely to substantially reverse this rightward drift. Indeed, the legacy of a failed Labour government could be the return of a right-wing Conservative administration led by Nigel Farage,” the analyst adds.

Faced with this prospect, young people view this possibility with concern, as Charles Steel, a 21-year-old final-year Political Science and Government student at University College London, told this newspaper: “I am afraid of what is coming for me.”

the United Kingdom, if the projections are met, where Labour will win, but with the shadow of a right that is rooted in our foundations, even when the new government proclaims itself central.”

Lowering immigration is a promise everyone has made

According to a recent poll by YouGov, conducted for British broadcaster Sky News, 43 percent of Britons think immigration has a negative impact on society compared to 35 percent who said immigration has a positive effect.

The Conservative pledge is to try to reduce the number of people arriving by irregular means, such as those crossing the English Channel from France in small boats. That was one of Rishi Sunak’s five promises when he took office in November 2022, so it was seen as a severe blow when the latest official data published showed 882 people arriving illegally in the country, the highest daily figure since late 2022.

Sunak’s government has been of little use in its efforts to implement a highly controversial plan to deport undocumented people to Rwanda to have their asylum claims processed there. The deal has been blocked several times by the courts, which ruled that the plan was unlawful, and no flights to the African country have carried illegals since it was announced two years ago.

On this issue, the Labour Party says it will seek to scrap the Rwanda Plan if it wins. It has, however, promised to reduce net migration figures without giving further details on how it will do so.

The Migration Observatory counted 685,000 migrants, a figure driven less by EU citizens arriving to work and study and more by Ukrainians seeking asylum and fleeing the war in Russia.

Maria Victoria Cristano – The Times – London

@mavicristancho