According to expert in political science Jamal Abdel Gawad, there are a number of important trends generated by the Ukrainian war, which are likely to represent parts of the international political and security reality in the next stage, stressing the importance of structural changes that represent basic elements in the current international system, which Her change heralded changes in this system.
In his study published under the title “Ukrainian War: A New Blow to the Liberal International Order”, Abdel-Gawad believes that “the Ukrainian war will leave profound effects on the international system,” explaining that “events of this magnitude and in this geography must have a transformative effect on relations The major powers, which represent the most important determinant of the nature of the international system.
The study stated that the Russian operations in Ukraine led to the mobilization of the relevant Western countries and institutions, “and the strengthening of cohesion in the two most important organizations of which Western countries are members: NATO and the European Union.”
Mutual economy collapses
The expert in political affairs believes that “the stalemate in the relationship between Russia and the West will put an end to economic interdependence, noting that Western countries have imposed strict sanctions on Russia, and mainly targeted the banking system, through which trade and money deals between Russia and the world are carried out, so assets were confiscated.” For major Russian banks, Russia has also been taken out of SWIFT services, and with the exception of exports of oil, gas, coal and other energy sources, Russia’s ability to continue commercial cooperation with the world has been severely affected, especially due to the suspension of flights, and some difficulties faced by Russian ships in ports the scientist”.
He continued, “Most importantly, European countries, which depend heavily on their imports of Russian energy, have embarked on a search for a new system to secure energy sources. This issue has been formally placed on the European Union’s agenda after the energy issue was outside the Union’s concern; The energy issue was left to each country individually to take care of it in the way that suits it, and pressure has increased on Europe to reconsider its energy policies, after the administration of US President Joe Biden banned the import of energy sources from Russia.
He added, “The most important change in the field of capabilities is related to the decisions taken by Western governments to increase defense spending and increase the size of the armed forces, and the West tends to follow policies of mobilization and mobilize its resources in order to enhance its military strength, and it is more likely that the West will emerge from this crisis and have greater military capabilities than it was before.” He had it before the war.
Abdul-Gawad pointed out that the Ukrainian war gave the West an opportunity to infuse vitality and cohesion in its military and economic institutions (NATO and the European Union). Ukraine, by strengthening Western solidarity, supporting institutions that embody this solidarity and strengthening the ability of Western countries to coordinate between them.
According to the study, all of these developments contribute to strengthening the strength of the Western bloc led by the United States in the face of the two international poles that are increasing in strength; China and Russia, and the most important challenge facing the West in this area is the ability to maintain this degree of unity for a long time.
He added that the objective differences between the different policies pursued by European countries to provide for their energy needs will not lead to the emergence of rapid divisions in the Western alliance, and it will be possible to distribute the burdens of the Russian action in Ukraine and the cost of confronting it fairly among Western countries, so that the cohesion and effectiveness of the Western bloc can be preserved for a longer period.
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