After a month of war, Russian forces are signaling that they will restrict their actions to specific military objectives – rather than attacking Ukraine as a whole.
According to British intelligence, Russian forces underestimated the Ukrainian resistance capacity. What had been planned by the Kremlin to be a war of movement (blitzkrieg) appears to have turned into a stalemate. In other words, a war of attrition marked by prolonged sieges and bombings of cities.
On the other hand, even taking into account Ukraine’s more optimistic estimates of enemy casualties, Russia still has approximately 90% of its forces intact. They were estimated to be between 150,000 and 200,000 troops at the start of the invasion.
In addition, large numbers of Russian troops are reported to be maneuvering into Belarus to enter the theater of operations soon.
So one of the most likely scenarios is for Russia to focus on taking the easternmost region of the country before agreeing to a ceasefire. That way, Vladimir Putin could claim victory in the war.
But it remains unclear whether the capture of the capital Kiev remains a key objective for the Russians. The attempt to conquer the city has the potential to generate a number of military and civilian casualties seen only in the world conflicts of the 20th century.
Check below what happened on the main battlefronts in the war and what the fighting trends are for the coming weeks.
1) Kiev
According to British and American intelligence sources, Russia’s initial objective was to launch a surprise attack to seize the Ukrainian capital. The idea was to break into government buildings and arrest or assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The next step would be to take important cities such as Kharkiv, Mariupol and Odessa, and the Donbass region. Moscow would then install a pro-Russian government and end the war by ensuring that Ukraine would become a neutral zone between the Russian border and NATO’s Eastern Front countries.
But that didn’t happen. Russian paratroopers were dropped over a Hostomel airbase to take over the area and await the arrival of the main strike force, which was moving from Belarus to the north.
A column of Russian combat vehicles nearly 60 kilometers long headed for the capital. But instead of directly attacking Kiev, the column began to take over small towns on the periphery. That is, as the initial objective of rapid conquest was not achieved, the idea was to surround the capital, bomb the area and force a surrender.
A dam on the Dnieper River was blown up and flooded the entire northern suburb of the city. The area has become impassable.
Russian troops were unable to completely encircle the capital, which never lost its southern flank nor had its supply line interrupted.
The war of movement became a war of attrition – where small territorial gains came at the cost of many combatants and civilians’ lives.
In the last week, Ukrainian forces began launching counterattacks against the towns of Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel. The objective was to remove Russian artillery from attacking range on the capital.
The Russians dug trenches to resist the counterattack and are currently investing in an offensive to try to take the town of Brovary, northeast of the capital.
Kiev was from the start a political objective, but of questionable military relevance. After a month of war, Russian forces seem to be turning their attention to more eastern regions of the country – these, yes, unquestionable military targets.
It is not possible to say whether the city will be the target of an all-out attack by Russian forces in the coming weeks.
2) Sumy
Sumy was one of the first Ukrainian cities to be targeted by Russian bombing. From there, it is possible to control the main highways that run from the northeast of the country to the capital Kiev and the eastern and southern regions.
Due to the dampness of the ground caused by the melting snow, Russian troops are advancing and conquering only the areas close to the highways. Heavy armored vehicles that tried to advance through the countryside and forests ended up mired in the mud.
Bombings ended up hitting ammonia deposits in the region. The chemical substance is used in fertilizer industries. There was a risk of a major explosion (like the one that occurred in Beirut in 2020) if these facilities were hit by direct bombing.
Russian forces are currently trying to complete the siege of the city of Sumy, with the aim of preventing the entry of supplies and reinforcements.
3) Kharkiv
Ukraine’s former Soviet capital and the country’s second-largest city, Kharkiv was the scene of some of the worst bombings of civilian targets in the Russian campaign so far.
Early in the war, the explosion of a missile in Freedom Square, one of the largest in Ukraine, showed that civilian targets would not be spared by the Russians. Since then, streets, residential buildings and public buildings have been completely destroyed by missiles and artillery fire.
The population of 1.4 million inhabitants has been evacuated through humanitarian corridors.
The taking of the city is considered of high importance for the realization of the Russian plan to seize the easternmost portion of Ukraine. From there, Russia can launch a north-to-south attack against the northern region of Donbass territory.
4) Lugansk and Donetsk
These two provinces are in the region known as the Donbass, whose eastern portion was taken over by Russian-backed separatist rebels in 2014.
There, the Ukrainian population is marked by miscegenation with Russians. President Vladimir Putin even used as a justification for the war the mission to “free” the ethnic Russians of the region from the rule of the Ukrainian government.
Shortly before the start of the war, Russia recognized Lugansk and Donetsk as independent Ukrainian republics.
To contain the rebels’ advance westward, the Ukrainian army has been building a system of fortifications across the region for eight years. It is estimated that the cream of the Ukrainian armed forces operate in the area.
On Friday (25), the deputy commander of the Russian armed forces, General Sergei Rudskoi, said that the Russian campaign will focus on the military conquest of Lugansk and Donetsk.
Russian forces should attempt to attack the Ukrainian defenders from the rear, making a “pincer” motion in an attempt to isolate them.
The northern section of the pincer is to be formed by an attack force that will depart from the Kharkiv region to take the cities of Izium and then Kramatorsk.
The southern section of the pincer must depart from the Donetsk region to take Hrodivka and join northern troops in the Kramatorsk region.
If Russian forces are successful, Ukrainian troops may be surrounded in Lysychansk and Sieverodonetsk regions.
The purpose of the Ukrainian troops is not to let the pincer close and try to push Russian troops out of the border. But if that is not possible, it is unclear whether Ukrainian troops will abandon their positions (and retreat westward) or fight until surrender or total annihilation.
5) Mariupol
Mariupol is the last Ukrainian enclave not yet completely conquered by the Russians in the region known as Azov. The port city had about 80% of its buildings destroyed by Russian troops – except for the port, which was left intact for the landing of troops and supplies.
The attacks on the city spawned some of the most dramatic scenes of the war so far, such as the bombing of a maternity hospital – where pregnant women were taken out, wounded by shrapnel – and a theater where more than 1,200 people, mostly women and children, tried to protect itself from missiles and artillery and armored fire.
Around 100,000 people are believed to be living in rubble without food, water and electricity. The Russians offered an escape route for the population in exchange for the surrender of the defending troops, but the Ukrainians did not accept the offer.
Mariupol is a high-value strategic target. Its conquest would allow Moscow to create a land corridor linking Russian territory and the Donbass region to the Crimean peninsula, taken in 2014.
The city is also an important port on the Sea of Azov. Its conquest would give Russia yet another “warm port” whose waters do not freeze during winter. Its loss would be a severe blow to the Ukrainian economy and could undermine the morale of its troops.
According to military analysts, the fall of Mariupol should happen in the short term, as Russian troops already control parts of the central region of the city.
6) Mykolayiv
Mykolayiv is considered a “fortress city” in southern Ukraine. The large concentration of troops and the defenses built in the region prevented the Russian army from advancing from Crimea to the city of Odessa in the initial phase of the offensive.
From there, the Ukrainian counterattack is starting to try to retake the city of Kherson – the first major Ukrainian urban center to fall into Russian hands. The city had a disorganized defense and was easily taken by Russian troops from Crimea.
Military analysts also believe that Ukrainian resistance at Mykolayiv prevented Russian forces from advancing not only to Odessa – in an attempt to blockade the entire Ukrainian coastline – but also northwards to seize the entire west bank of the Dnieper River. If that had happened, possibly Ukraine would be divided into two territories today.
7) Lviv
Lviv and other cities in western Ukraine, such as Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk, are serving as a safe haven for thousands of refugees and internally displaced people.
The region is the main escape route for Poland, Romania and Slovakia. The UN estimates that nearly 4 million refugees have left Ukraine and around 6 million have fled their cities but are still on Ukrainian territory.
The region is home to military training bases and war material depots. As a result, it has already been the target of a series of Russian missile attacks. However, the possibility of an invasion by ground troops in the region is considered remote.
One possible scenario is for Belarusian troops to get involved in the war to try to seize the main railways and roads linking this region to Kiev – in an attempt to isolate the capital.
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