25 years ago, I witnessed first hand the bubble of the Puntocom. The enthusiasm was overflowing: any company with a domain “.com” became a promise of the future. Then, brutal correction arrived. Many pioneer companies disappeared, although some survived and became the technological giants that dominate the markets today. Now, fervor for artificial intelligence inevitably recalls that period. But are we really facing a new bubble or before an unprecedented technological revolution? The truth is that the market is betting strongly.
In any case, the debate on the impact of AI cannot be separated from the global economic context. The euro zone is leaving behind a period of weakness. In 2024, growth was close to 1%, and in Axa IM we project that in 2025 it will be approximately 1%. Of course, although it is an advance, the comparison with the US is inevitable: the US economy could grow to 2.3% or even more, driven by an aggressive monetary and fiscal policy.
At the same time, one thing is the general photo of the European economy and a very different one, what happens when we go down to examine the details. Thus, countries such as Spain show a solid expansion, while Germany Cojea and France faces political and economic tensions. Given this, the European Central Bank (ECB) points to interest rates in 2025. The market consensus awaits a reduction of 100 basic points, but in Axa IM we foresee 150 points. The key question is: Monetary policy will be enough to correct structural deficiencies? Hardly. Structural reforms are the true key. But instead of seeing the heterogeneity of European economies as an obstacle, we can consider this diversity as an opportunity. With more uniform interest rate differentials, Europe has a unique opportunity to advance in the banking and capital markets.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the situation is different. The US tariff policy generates uncertainty. Although the direct inflationary impact of tariffs is limited, its combination with the relocation of production and increased internal labor costs could maintain high inflation. In Axa IM we project an inflation of 3.2% in the US for 2026, above the closure of 2024. This raises doubts about the sustainability of growth and fiscal policy. Donald Trump has promised a massive tax reduction, which could aggravate the deficit. The fundamental question is whether the economy will grow enough to compensate for the fall in tax collection.
In any case, the divergence between old Europe and America is also manifested in markets. In the US, the representativeness of technology in the main indices is around 30%, while in the euro zone it barely reaches 8%. And the fact is that Wall Street continues to dominate the global financial panorama. Its strength is that everyone operates in dollars and the main raw material markets are called in this currency. But could this preeminence be threatened in the long term? In Axa IM we manage investments with a horizon of several decades, and one of the questions we always ask is: Will the dollar be the world reference currency in 20 or 30 years? China, for example, has gradually reduced its exposure to the US Treasury bonds., While other central banks have chosen to diversify in gold. Although an abrupt transition would be devastating for markets, the long -term trend is undeniable.
The history of the markets teaches us that technological disruptions do not always end in bubbles. The Puntocom bubble caused a brief recession in the US, but it was not a recession of consumption, but of investment. What happens with AI will depend on its real application and how it is valued in the markets. And there is a clear advantage regarding the fever that began in the mid -1990s: today we know exactly what are the business models behind companies such as Nvidia, what markets they attend and how they can be valued. Even so, the lesson is clear: competition always challenges monopolies. And in a world in constant change, no company, as dominant that seems today, is safe from the disruption of tomorrow.
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