Ukraine and Russia are facing the third year of war. Putin continues to harbor plans of attack and Ukraine is experiencing a year of perseverance and defense.
Frankfurt – Russia's president began in February 2022 Wladimir Putin the war of aggression on Ukraine. More than 22 months later, there is still no end to the bloodshed in sight on the 500-kilometer front in eastern and southern Ukraine. The outcome remains uncertain – but Putin has plans for 2024 and is becoming more confident again after setbacks.
The first year in Ukraine war It was a sobering affair for Putin's army, with many defeats. But now the Kremlin boss sees the initiative back with his troops: Aid to Ukraine from the West seems to be crumbling, Volodymyr Zelensky Apparently there is a shortage of soldiers and Russia attacks the neighboring country with devastating attacks early in the year. A difficult start to the new year for Ukraine. “Peace will come when we achieve our goals,” Putin said at his annual press conference in December.
Military expert warns in the Ukraine war: “2024 could be the year of decision”
One thing is already certain at the beginning of the year: Ukraine is expecting a year of perseverance and defense. The military expert also confirmed this Carlos Masala, professor at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich. But he also sees a glimmer of hope for Ukraine. Namely, if the West takes measures in the middle of the year “to ensure long-term and sustainable support for the Ukrainian armed forces with ammunition, spare parts, short-range missiles, etc..” Only then can things look up for Ukraine again, said Masala Picture.
But the military expert from Munich also sounds the alarm: “If this does not happen, then 2024 could become a year of decision in which Ukraine will not be able to hold the front line.”
At the same time, Ukraine is likely to face problems in trying to retake many of its territories. Bundeswehr Major General Christian Freuding described it South German newspaper Most recently, massive fortifications of the Russian army: Some areas were “mined and barricaded to an extent that we have probably never seen on this scale before”. With a barrier “up to ten kilometers in extent,” usual tactical approaches are simply “impossible.”
Putin's Russia also wants to make conquests in 2024
Putin's goals in the war are clear: he wants to expand Russia's borders in several places. He will probably do everything he can to get closer to this goal in the new year. The Kremlin boss recently emphasized again that Russia has no interest in western Ukraine. However, Putin would like to use the war of aggression to recapture other areas, including the following regions:
- Donetsk-Krivoy Rog
- Odessa
- Taurida (Crimea)
Putin recently dismissed possible attack plans on NATO territory as “nonsense” and relegated to the realm of fable. But the Kremlin boss also made it clear again and again that it was Negotiations with Ukraine only on Russia's terms will give. Putin assured in his New Year's speech that his country would “never” back down. Russia “hardly defended” its interests in 2023, he said on Sunday in his New Year’s speech. He did not explicitly mention Ukraine.
No end to the war in sight: “There will be no ceasefire and peace in 2024”
Military expert Nico Lange, a researcher at the Munich Security Conference, also said that Ukraine is dependent on arms supplies from the USA in an interview with the Picture. With arms deliveries, Ukraine would have another chance to drive Russia out of the south of the country in the spring of 2024.
In any case, the fighting is not expected to end quickly, Ukrainian-American expert Mark Temnycky told the portal newsweek.com. “Unless circumstances change, it is very unlikely that the war will end in 2024,” he said. The majority of people in Ukraine continue to believe that the country will win the war: “And they will not accept any other outcome than the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from the territory of Ukraine.”
Putin's plans and Trump: Is Ukraine threatened with a “disaster” from the USA?
However, changed circumstances certainly seem possible in the medium term. The 2024 presidential election in the USA is also crucial for the course of the Ukraine war, as Lange emphasized: “A ceasefire and peace will most likely not be achieved in 2024, as Putin will continue the war at least until the result of the US -Presidential elections are certain.”
Other experts are already talking about a possible “political disaster”: There are signs that Russia's short- to medium-term strategy is to “hold out in Ukraine until a Trump presidency pulls the plug on vital military aid,” analyzed the magazine Foreign policy just before the turn of the year. (Denise Dörries/fn)
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