The American banking sector is one of those silent pillars that support the global economic mechanism. Without its stability and financing capacity, business growth, technological innovation and mass consumption would be unviable.
I want to analyze the US financial sector this week because, if we take a look at the gigantic SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE)which offers a diversified exposure to US banksincluding both large and regional entities, we can see how its price is developing a fall that has already moved the ETF 8% away from its last peak (remember the 10% rule?) and that brings it closer to a key area. This level coincides with the beginning of the important bullish gap that opened on November 6, after Donald Trump’s electoral victory, and which I have baptized as the “Trump gap.”
A fall that fills part of this gap, opened from $54.70, is an unbeatable opportunity to buy US banking. When that happens, my intention is to focus my sights on some of the banking “blue sapphires”: securities with solid fundamentals, excellent recommendations and attractive revaluation potential, eligible for the latest review of the Tressis Cartera ECO 30 fund, advised by theEconomist. These include names such as American International Group (AIG), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Corebridge Financial (CRBG), Lincoln National (LNC), OneMain Holdings (OMF) and Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL).
These entities represent attractive opportunities in a sector that is in full consolidation and adjustment. Patience and selectivity will be key to identifying the exact moment when these sapphires show their maximum splendor.
American International Group (AIG)
AIG is one of the best-known insurance giants in the US, with a global presence in general and life insurance. After a profound restructuring after the 2008 crisis, it has consolidated its business model. His current focus is on improving margins and operational efficiency. It is a value bet in the insurance sector with potential for revaluation.
It is the first on my list since its price curve has been consolidating positions within a beautiful bearish lateral channel for months. If its shares return to its base, which is around 66-68 dollars, we would be faced with a wonderful opportunity to buy AIG, looking for it to resume its upward trend from there and head towards marking new highs above those of this year in the 80 dollars.
Bank of America (BAC)
BAC is one of the largest financial institutions in the US, with strong diversification in commercial, investment banking and wealth management. Its financial strength and focus on digitalization allow it to attract new customers and optimize costs. It has a strong track record of generating consistent income and dividends. It is a benchmark in stability and sustained growth.
The ‘Trump gap’ was generated from the 42 dollars and a fall to that support would coincide with the bullish guideline that has been guiding the rises since October 2023. In that environment they can place their purchase orders, seeking that from there, after having corrected a 14% since its last peak in the 48 dollarsresume its upward trend.
Citigroup (C)
With a global network, Citigroup is key in investment banking and financial services for large corporations. Its presence in more than 90 countries gives it a strategic position in emerging and developed markets. Although it has faced regulatory challenges, it maintains a strong capital base. Its international diversification offers it a wide margin for growth.
The area that I suggest you wait to buy Citigroup shares is in the 63-65 dollarswhich is the bottom of the gap that opened upwards after Trump’s election and which also coincides with its bullish direction.
Lincoln National
LNC combines life insurance, annuities and financial planning. It has focused on strengthening its balance sheet and expanding its hybrid insurance products. The company stands out for its ability to adapt to changing environments and its solid risk management. It is an interesting option for those seeking exposure to the insurance sector with moderate growth.
Technically, the title seems to have between eyebrow and eyebrow for months to recover part of the strong downward trend that was born at the heights of 2021 from the $68.50. At the moment, it has only managed to recover 38.20% of its Fibonacci, after touching the 37 dollars. I would be interested in looking for a buying window if it returned to the September lows in the $27.75-$30. Buy there with stop at $27.75. If this support loses, I prefer to sell and avoid a bearish context that would at least seek the 25 dollars.
OneMain Holdings (OMF)
OMF is an entity specialized in personal consumer loans, with a business model focused on medium-risk clients. It is distinguished by its efficient credit risk management and its high profitability in niches less served by large banks. Its attractive dividends and ability to generate solid income make it a valuable sapphire.
Technically, OneMain Holdings is one of the financial entities that has the greatest strength and that is always interesting to take into account. The optimal area to ride its impeccable upward trend is located at the bottom of the ‘Trump gap’ that opened since the 51-52 dollars. There you can buy.
Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL)
WAL is a regional bank based in Phoenix, recognized for its agility and operational efficiency. It focuses on the middle market, serving local businesses with personalized services. Its organic growth and strategic acquisitions have positioned it as an expanding entity. It has a solid track record of profitability and risk management.
Western Alliance has between eyebrow and eyebrow recover the historical highs of the year 2021 in the 116 dollars. Up to there there is still a potential of 30%, which could be sought if the short-term consolidation seeks support in the $85 area (top of the Trump gap). With stop at 80 dollars you can search for the 116 dollars.
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