The housing sale number will be around 650,000 operations in 2025, matching the registration of 2022, and the price of housing will rise by 7.2%-measured according to the INE index-because the new offer of real estate will be maintained below the creation of new homes, according to the new forecasts for the Spanish real estate sector of Caixabank Research.
However, the price increase by 2025 could be only 5.9% in year -on -year value if the price indicator of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Agenda is taken into account, which is carried out with the value of the housing appraisal and not with the price of the appraisal that the INE uses.
Regarding the new construction visas, CaixaBank has raised its projection to 135,000 units, compared to 125,000 of its previous forecast, after they have gained traction in 2024.
With these new forecasts, the growth of the price of housing would be slightly higher than the income available per household, so that the accessibility ratio would increase slightly at an aggregate level, going from 7.2 years of full income that a home must dedicate to buy a home up to 7.5 years in 2025, similar to 2022, although much lower than the maximum of 9.4 years that was reached in 2007.
The mismatch between supply and demand will continue
The good behavior of household income would avoid in the short term the appearance of unbridled imbalances in the added prices, although in large cities there is an accessibility problem.
In any case, the behavior of the price of housing will continue to be largely conditioned by the mismatch between supply and demand. In this sense, a reactivation of the minor offer than expected could press more than expected to housing prices and, depending on the demand reaction, aggravate accessibility problems.
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