One death next to home is equivalent to twenty in France, two hundred in China and 2,000 in Africa. This is an informative maxim that is strictly followed, with the few exceptions that mark very striking cases. And it is also one of the arguments used by those who embrace Manichean do-gooder discourses to attack the press and criticize that, for example, the war in Sudan does not receive the extensive coverage of the invasion of Ukraine or the war in Gaza.
However, this is not just the case in the West. It's global. A Japanese also cares more about what happens on his street corner or in neighboring China. And in China they care little about Ukraine. The proximity of the events marks the information agenda, and that proximity is not only geographical. Tunisia may be closer to Spain than the United States, but there are sociocultural and economic elements that create greater emotional closeness with the superpower from which, in addition, more information usually arrives. And, I repeat, the same thing happens in Botswana.
We are too short-sighted to understand that something that is distant from us can end up impacting us strongly.
As a general rule, we care about what affects us. And there are many levels at which this impact can occur. The problem is that, on too many occasions, we are too short-sighted to understand that something that is distant from us can end up having a strong impact on us. Because we live in a globalized world. I suffered it at the end of my time as a correspondent in Asia, when hundreds of trolls (and some who were not trolls) attacked me for “spreading a discourse of fear” when I warned that this Chinese coronavirus could have a serious effect on our country. It was January 2020.
Now something similar is happening with the situation in the Sahel strip. It is far away from us in every sense, but we are going to feel the consequences of the political instability in the region strongly on our coasts, because it is one of the many elements that encourage immigration. And the humanitarian crisis that is brewing, especially in Sudan, is of the first order. In addition, there is a clear geopolitical component that translates into a fight for the influence of the two large ideological blocs on the planet.
Therefore, today we approach the African continent. These are the topics we will cover:
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Sudan is on fire, and we should be worried.
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Out with the West, welcome in Russia.
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Boomerang jihadism terrorizes Moscow.
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Humanitarian crisis
Sudan is on fire, and we should be worried
It is difficult to pay attention to what is happening in Sudan when the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza constantly require resources and information space. But that does not mean that the civil war that this country, one of the poorest in the world, is suffering, is of less interest. Two satraps with no legitimacy other than the uniform and the decorations they have given themselves face each other in a dirty fight like few others. It is one of those wars in which the only thing that matters is power and money and in which, with the world looking the other way, the worst possible atrocities are committed.
If they don't kill you, you die of hunger. Around 15,000 people have died since the first fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces last April, and the United Nations warns that 220,000 severely malnourished children and 7,000 women waiting to give birth may die if help does not arrive quickly. And it's not going to come. The UN needs $2.7 billion to prevent that from happening, and has only received 5% of that sum.
So 8.4 million Sudanese have had to flee their place of residence. 1.7 million seek refuge outside Sudan's borders. More than half are minors. The majority are in neighboring countries, such as Chad or Egypt, but, taking into account the poor conditions in those places, it seems logical to think that this situation will increase migratory pressure in Europe. The UN itself warns: «Travel beyond the region will grow, including to Europe. In fact, citizens of Burkina Faso and Mali are already among those who arrive the most by sea to Italy.
Anyone in his situation would try to escape Sudan. I encourage you to look for videos of what is happening to understand why. For that same reason, if all these conflicts are not resolved at source, immigration will not stop growing. After all, these failed states are populations with high fertility and a very young population that simply does not want to die yet.
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The geopolitical dimension
Out with the West, welcome in Russia
In just three years there have been seven coups d'état in the countries that make up the Sahel strip. Several more were unsuccessful. They are the result of chaos caused by corruption, jihadism and, also, by the geopolitical struggle between powers in decline and others in rise. On the one hand, colonial powers like France and imperialist superpowers like the United States tend to give their support to democratically – more or less – elected governments; On the other hand, the great authoritarian powers, Russia and China, help whoever best serves their interests in the region, which are increasing.
And rarely is this battle between the two great ideological blocs of the 21st century better appreciated than in Niger, which last week decided to break the military collaboration agreements with Washington, by which around a thousand US troops can operate in its territory. territory – even with an air base -, and open “a new path of cooperation” with Russia. As if that were not enough, there are also suspicions that the Nigerien coup plotters are reaching secret agreements with Iran, a country that benefits from uranium from this African country.
The West has tried to make its way in Africa with development aid, thinking about the ordinary citizen. Russia and China are smarter. They know that the last thing the leaders of the Sahel care about is their population, so they do what they know works best: line their pockets. It is a magnificent strategy to obtain natural resources, achieve contracts for infrastructure, and buy wills that come in handy in the voting of international organizations.
Meanwhile, the consequences are paid by the civilian population who have no voice or vote. In the worst case scenario, it falls into the clutches of Islamist movements that find a perfect accommodation in the Sahel. And that can also affect us. Not in vain, the 2023 Global Terrorism Index considers Africa as the global epicenter of jihadist violence, which has an especially high presence in the Western Sahel. Four of the ten countries most affected by this violence are in the region.
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The price of getting into trouble
Boomerang jihadism terrorizes Moscow
Taking sides in external conflicts and getting into geopolitical trouble has its risks. We know this well in Spain, which paid for its intervention in the invasion of Iraq with the worst attacks in Europe. Now they have reminded Russia in Moscow, the power that has used its army the most in Syria. A second stage of jihadism has opened in Russia, which was born with the Chechen separatists in the mid-1990s. As Dmitry Shlapentokh explains in 'The Rise of the Russian Caliphate' (published in 2010, four years before the Russian occupation of Crimea), that rapid movement crossed the borders of Chechnya, and has now gone global.
The battle of narratives did not take a few hours to open: Vladimir Putin, who had dismissed warnings from Western powers that pointed to terrorist attacks, quickly pointed out the fact that the alleged terrorists had been captured near the border with Ukraine to trace a causality and point to kyiv, which has at all times denied its involvement. The fact that the attackers are Tajiks does not seem to change the Russian narrative either, reinforced by tight control of the national media and an army of trolls on Western social networks.
The more Russia gets involved in the Sahel, where its presence grows like foam in the heat of coups d'état, the more likely it is to end up fueling this type of attacks. Logically, the same can be warned to the rest of the powers. For this reason, France is already on alert for possible attacks. This is what happens when the hornet's nest is stoked.
Is all for today. I hope I have explained well some of what is happening out there. If you are signed up, you will receive this newsletter every Wednesday in your email. And, if you like it, it will be very helpful if you share it and recommend it to your friends.
#Sahel #fire #worried