The second half of the year that we are now saying goodbye to has brought a lot of dynamism to the real estate market in terms of the purchase and sale of houses. Figures are expected to be around 630,000 transactions, very close to 2022, which was a record year, with 650,000 operations. The moderation of rates has helped the recovery, especially in large capitals, and predicts a very good 2025. Not for everyone, because “accessing housing will continue to be complicated for the most vulnerable families and for young people who want to become emancipated.” , recalls Ferran Font, director of Estudio des piso.com. But there is reason for optimism if we also take into account that the savings rate is at its highest. “It is concentrated above all on the older generations but in some cases they collaborate with contributions for the entry into housing of the younger ones,” recalls Font. If we add the expected purchases of first homes to the current dynamic of rising transactions, “we can have a 2025 with record numbers, which can be close to 700,000 homes,” he highlights.
“The Spanish real estate market points to moderate growth, supported by economic stabilization and the forecast of a more lax monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB),” says José Manuel Fernández, deputy director general of the Real Estate Credit Union (UCI). ). It points to factors such as the decrease in inflation and the improvement in employment to stimulate demand, “especially in urban and coastal areas, with an increase in sales that at UCI we foresee around 10%. However, the limited supply and lack of affordable housing will remain key challenges, especially for groups such as young people and middle-income families,” he clarifies.
No sharp increases are expected, but prices will continue to rise due to limited supply, especially in large cities and coastal areas. «At UCI we could anticipate price increases of around 5% for the purchase. In the case of rentals, high demand, together with the lack of incentives to expand supply, will also put upward pressure on prices, which could grow by 10%,” highlights the UCI deputy director general.
A forecast that coincides with the conclusions of the III Solvia Market View 2024 study in which this real estate firm foresees an increase of between 5% and 7% in housing prices at the end of the year and a trend that would moderate slightly in 2025, with growth of between 4% and 5%. According to this analysis, between July and September the average value of residential properties was at 2,114 euros/m2which represents an increase of 2.8% compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 7.1% compared to the same period in 2023, thus reflecting a continued upward trend in property prices. In the new construction segment, an interannual growth of 4.9% was observed, reaching an average price of 2,254 euros/m2, while compared to the previous quarter, the advance was smaller, 1.1%. On the other hand, the cost of used properties stood at 2,080 euros/m2, with a quarterly increase of 3.3% and an increase of 7.5% compared to the same period of the previous year.
«The real estate sector is showing great dynamism and demand continues to be very solid. However, the supply is being reduced to a minimum due to the low production of new construction housing and the reduction of the existing product, which is leading to an inevitable tightening of prices that, in line with the affirmation of organizations such as the Bank of Spain, in no case will it translate into a real estate bubble,” says Juan Ramón Prieto, Director of Operations at Solvia. He considers that the key is to know the time horizon in which this trend will continue, “which will fundamentally depend on the housing stock and the evolution of the economy, as well as the first fruits of the collaboration between all the actors in the public sector.” and private to build a more accessible market”,
As far as areas are concerned, the peripheral areas of large cities and coastal towns with more affordable prices “will continue to attract buyers, especially among those looking for their first home or vacation residence,” says the deputy director general of UCI. Regions such as the Costa del Sol and the Balearic Islands will continue to stand out for the rise of the luxury market, while inland areas with good connectivity and quality of life, such as Castilla-La Mancha, are beginning to gain prominence. “Climate change is even changing market trends, making localities increasingly further north such as Galicia, Asturias and Cantabria becoming fashionable as holiday areas,” adds this expert.
Trends: sustainability and efficiency
Real estate will be defined by trends such as sustainability and efficiency, the rehabilitation of the built stock, digitalization or growth in the luxury segment, among others. “Given the shortage of developable land and the aging of the real estate stock, the rehabilitation and improvement of the energy efficiency of existing homes will be a priority,” highlights José Manuel Fernández. There is also a lot of interest from foreign buyers in buying properties in Spain. “Before, British and German buyers predominated, and now we see an increase in buyers from France, Nordic countries, the United States or Latin American countries, and both clients looking for their second home as investors or even as a habitual residence,” duck. This means that attention is no longer only focused on sun and beach homes, but new opportunities also arise in other areas of the Spanish geography to conquer this type of client. The deputy general director of UCI also speaks of another clear trend for this new year, that of the reactivation of construction after years of very flat activity and little relevance to the market. “In addition, investors interested in BTR will build complete buildings to allocate housing for rent,” he clarifies. And at a global level there is a clear need to generate affordable housing for incomes with lower incomes. A solution that aims to be a trend in the coming years will be industrialized and modular construction.
When it comes to sustainable and efficient houses, there is a clear growing trend. “We cannot say at the moment that it is a priority when purchasing a home, but the trend is that more and more buyers are concerned about the impact of their homes on the environment, energy consumption and comfort and quality of life” , explains Fernández.
This is demonstrated by the second edition of our Observatory on Housing and Sustainability, which reflects that 77.8% of buyers take sustainability into account in the purchasing process, although only 18% consider it a fundamental requirement. “Without a doubt, the arrival of a new Rehabilitation Plan to transpose the EPBD (Energy Efficiency in Buildings Directive) could continue to promote this sustainable awareness among home buyers,” he adds.
Rental: little supply and high prices
«Currently the rental market in Spain is suffering from the perfect storm: a deficit in housing construction since the last financial crisis, difficulty in facing the purchase of a home by families that pushes them to rent, a growing demand for rentals, both habitual and temporary housing by students and young professionals who see Spain as a good destination to move to, a battery of regulations on rentals and continuous messages in the press where it is perceived that the culprit of the problem is the owner, which which in turn generates more fear and legal insecurity than Consequently, it reduces the supply even more. All this ultimately translates into the escalation of prices that we are experiencing,” explains Eduardo Garbayo, director of operations at Spotahome, a medium and long-term rental platform. In the rental market, both owners and tenants demand clear and stable laws that protect their interests and facilitate real estate transactions, reducing uncertainty and promoting growth in the sector.
Ferran Font, director of Studios at apartments.com, also highlights the increasingly high rental prices since “we want to live in areas where there are few homes on offer.” The unstable regulatory framework “affects the entire market and represents a decrease in available supply. It has been reduced by half in two years,” he clarifies. And remember that young people who are looking for a rental home, because they cannot afford to buy a home, are joined by “the migratory market that is concentrated in large capitals also seeking to rent.”
Technology: AI and tokenization
New technologies are bringing changes to the real estate sector. From Spotahome they expect to see numerous applications of AI in the ‘real estate’ sector in 2025, “such as autonomous tenant care, personalization of the accommodation search, validation and scale review of advertisements and improvement of them , market analyzes based on purchase price versus rental price, and a wide variety of use cases that are changing the sector as we know it today,” says its director of operations, Eduardo Garbayo,
On the other hand, the tokenization of properties is positioned as a strong trend to transform the sector. At Spotahome they talk about this innovative approach, which uses blockchain technology to divide the ownership of real estate into digital tokens, is democratizing access and providing greater liquidity and, although still in the initial phase, is rapidly gaining ground in Spain. And they remember that by 2027 it is expected that 10% of global wealth will be tokenized, including the real estate sector. With a potential market that could exceed €15.2 billion in 2030, tokenization is presented as the future revolution in the financial and real estate market.
Change of use of premises and offices
The sector points to a clear trend in the transformation and changes of use of premises and offices to homes given their good location and the changes in habits in commerce, “where only the most ‘prime’ streets will concentrate local commerce and local In less busy areas they can be transformed into homes, as well as offices into homes that respond more to housing needs than to the work centers themselves,” says José Manuel Fernández, deputy director general of UCI. Adjustments are anticipated in these segments due to the evolution of labor and commercial dynamics. “Labor flexibility and the rise of e-commerce could influence the demand for office spaces and logistics centers, respectively,” he adds. Furthermore, sustainability and energy efficiency will be key aspects in the development and rehabilitation of these spaces to adapt to new market demands.
#renewed #dynamism #real #estate #sector #faces #problems
